Michigan State (7-5) vs Oregon (8-4)
When: Monday, December 31st 2018
Where: Levi’s Stadium,
Santa Clara, California
Time: 3:00 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Oregon -1.5/48
The Michigan State Spartans were supposed to compete for a Big Ten title and possible CFP berth as they were one of the most experienced teams coming into this season. But, injuries on offense really hampered their abilities and the team suffered to a 7-5 season. They will look to gain some momentum heading into next season when they take on the Michigan State Spartans in the Redbox Bowl from San Francisco on New Year’s Eve. This bowl has changed its name many times and will be played at Levi’s Stadium, home of next week’s National Championship Game between Alabama and Clemson. The Spartans rode a strong defense to their seven wins, ranking 14th overall and No. 1 against the run and will go up against a future NFL quarterback in Oregon’s Justin Herbert. The Ducks had a disappointing season as well, considering they were 5-0 and had comfortable lead before collapsing at home against Stanford. Oregon stumbled and dropped three of their next four before rallying to win their final two. This was supposed to be Herbert’s last game before turning pro, but decided last week to stick it out another year in Eugene. Michigan State has given up a lot of big plays in the passing game, something that could be big for Herbert and the Ducks.
While Herbert has decided to play one more year for Oregon, Michigan State’s best offensive weapon is not. Senior running back LJ Scott could have redshirted this season since he’s only played in four games because of injury, but the team’s leading rusher from a season ago has decided to go pro, so he’s returning for the bowl game. Scott combined for around 1,900 yards over the last two seasons, but had just 180 in the four games he played this season. With Scott sidelined, sophomore Connor Heyward emerged as a feature back, running for 520 yards and a 4.6 per carry average. Both backs are expected to see a number of carries considering how quarterback Brian Lewerke has struggled this season. The junior has eight touchdowns and 10 interceptions in an injury-plagued campaign.
When Herbert went out of the Ducks’ regular-season finale against rival Oregon State in the first quarter with a shoulder injury, coach Mario Cristobal turned to freshmen CJ Verdell and Travis Dye to run the ball. The duo combined for for 386 rushing yards and six touchdowns in a 55-15 triumph over the Beavers on the road. That gives Oregon some options in against a tough Michigan State defense to help take pressure off Herbert. Still, the Ducks will likely go to the air more often than not to take advantage of some of the Spartan’s lapses in the secondary. Herbert’s top target is Dillon Mitchell, who has 69 catches, 1,114 yards, and nine touchdowns on the season.
This Michigan State offense is pretty bad and I can’t seem them keeping up with an Oregon offense that’s probably going to open things up with Herbert. The Ducks’ defense is not that bad and has the ability to slow down Scott and the running game. Oregon also has the geographical edge in this one playing closer to home.
Pick: Oregon -2
Betting Trends:
- Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
- Spartans are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games.
- Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
- Spartans are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
- Spartans are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Spartans are 31-13-2 ATS in their last 46 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Spartans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. Pac-12.
- Spartans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
- Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
- Spartans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Ducks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
- Ducks are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Ducks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Ducks are 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Ducks are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win.
- Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Ducks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
- Ducks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Ducks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Ducks are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Ducks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
- Ducks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- Ducks are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 7-0 in Spartans last 7 games overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Spartans last 5 games on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Spartans last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-1 in Spartans last 7 Bowl games.
- Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 non-conference games.
- Over is 6-2 in Spartans last 8 bowl games.
- Over is 5-2 in Spartans last 7 vs. Pac-12.
- Over is 7-3 in Spartans last 10 neutral site games.
- Over is 16-7 in Spartans last 23 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 16-7 in Spartans last 23 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Ducks last 5 games on grass.
- Under is 5-1 in Ducks last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 12-4 in Ducks last 16 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 51-18-2 in Ducks last 71 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Ducks last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 12-5-1 in Ducks last 18 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 12-5 in Ducks last 17 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3 in Ducks last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
