Miami FL (7-5) vs Wisconsin (7-5)
When: Thursday, December 27th 2018
Where: Yankee Stadium,
New York, New York
Time: 5:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Miami FL -3/47
The Miami Hurricanes and Wisconsin Badgers ended the 2017 with a New Year’s Day Orange Bowl matchup in which the Badgers won 34-24, and both expected those successful seasons to catapult them to even bigger things this year. Well, that didn’t happen, and Miami and Wisconsin were two of the bigger disappointments this College Football season, ending with 7-5 records and a rematch. But this year’s rematch will be in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium in New York. The Hurricanes were looking good in that game in Miami last year, leading 14-3 at one point before the Badgers stormed back with 21 unanswered points and a 34-24 victory. Miami started 4-1 this year, but then lost their next four games – the third such losing streak in three years under head coach Mark Richt. They ended strong by winning their last two by 24 and 21 points respectively over Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh. Badgers quarterback Alex Hornibrook, who missed three games this year with a concussion, lit up a tough Hurricanes defense in last year’s Orange Bowl, earning MVP honors with 258 yards passing and four touchdowns with no interceptions. He ended the regular season with a three-interception showing in a loss to Minnesota – Wisconsin’s first loss to the Golden Gophers in 15 years. The Badgers do have a pretty dominant running game, however, ranking seventh in the nation (268.4 ypg).
Miami’s defense is solid, especially up front with All-America defensive lineman Gerald Willis. Miami ranks first in the country in passing yards allowed (140.8), third-down conversion (23.7%), and tackles for loss (10.5 per contest) under coordinator Manny Diaz, who is leaving after the season to take over as Temple’s head coach. Offensively, it was ugly, especially at the quarterback position, where redshirt freshman N’Kosi Perry (51.6 percent completion) and senior Malik Rosier (53.5) struggling to make good decisions and create plays. They scored just 60 points during their four-game losing streak in the middle of the season, shuffling back and forth between Rosier and Perry. Perry eventually took over and led the Hurricanes to their final two victories. Miami is 42nd in the country at running the ball behind Travis Homer (969 yards) and Deejay Dallas (609).
While Hornibrook and the passing game struggled mightily, the Badgers leaned on sophomore running back Jonathan Taylor, who had a monster season, becoming the fourth in school history to win the Doak Walker Award. The honor goes to the nation’s top running back and he needs just 11 rushing yards to hit the 2,000-yard barrier for the season as he is averaging a nation-best 165.8 yards rushing per game. He will have his work cut out for him against a pretty stout and quick Miami defense, especially if Hornibrook (13 TDs, 11 INTs) struggles. The Badgers defense wasn’t even close to their dominant ways from last season, allowing 81 points total in the last two games while allowing Minnesota to rush for 201 yards in the season finale.
It’s hard to make a case for either team in this game, but I have to give the edge to Miami in this one because of their defense. If it wasn’t for Taylor, the Badgers would have one of the worst offenses in the country. Miami’s quick and physical defense will be able to key on him and make Hornibrook beat them. Miami looked good in their final two games with Perry at quarterback and I think the momentum carries them to a victory here.
Pick: Miami -3
Betting Trends:
- Hurricanes are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Hurricanes are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Hurricanes are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win.
- Hurricanes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Hurricanes are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
- Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Hurricanes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big Ten.
- Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
- Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games.
- Hurricanes are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in December.
- Hurricanes are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games.
- Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Badgers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
- Badgers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Badgers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Badgers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
- Badgers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.
- Badgers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Hurricanes last 6 games overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Hurricanes last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Hurricanes last 5 games on grass.
- Under is 5-0 in Hurricanes last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-1 in Hurricanes last 7 neutral site games.
- Under is 5-1 in Hurricanes last 6 games in December.
- Under is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 Bowl games.
- Over is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 non-conference games.
- Over is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 vs. Big Ten.
- Under is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 bowl games.
- Under is 11-4 in Hurricanes last 15 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 10-4 in Hurricanes last 14 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 35-17 in Hurricanes last 52 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 10-2-1 in Badgers last 13 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Badgers last 5 games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Badgers last 5 neutral site games.
- Over is 10-3 in Badgers last 13 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 6-2 in Badgers last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Over is 18-7-1 in Badgers last 26 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 5-2 in Badgers last 7 games in December.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Badgers last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Over is 11-5 in Badgers last 16 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
