NY Mets (56-72) at Washington (77-50)
When: Sunday, August 27th 2017
Where: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: OFF
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The Washington Nationals are fighting through some key injuries up and down the roster, but they are still in cruise control in the National League East and have plenty of time to get healthy for a big October run. They hold a 12.5-game lead over the Miami Marlins and will host the New York Mets in a double-header on Sunday. First baseman Ryan Zimmerman suffered a shoulder injury prior to the weekend series and between him and the injured Bryce Harper, the Nationals have lost a lot of offense. Harper and Zimmerman have a combined 58 home runs and 173 RBI for the first place Nationals. Washington has been picking on their division all season long and the Mets are no exception. New York has dropped 10 of the 14 meetings with Washington this season and 10 of their last 13 overall. They gave up after the All-Star Break by dumping salary and watching their former players like Lucas Duda and Curtis Granderson, enjoy success with their new clubs. The only big bat still on the roster is Yoenis Cespedes, but he was just placed on the 10-day DL with a hamstring injury and could actually miss the remainder of the season. Starting pitcher Matt Harvey (shoulder) allowed five runs – three earned – in 4.2 innings on Saturday in a rehab start for Double-A Binghamton. The Mets are scheduled to go with Tommy Milone in the first game and Seth Lugo in the second while the Nationals counter with right-handers Erick Fedde and Tanner Roark.
Pitchers: Mets – Seth Lugo (5-3, 4.85 ERA) | Nationals – Tanner Roark (10-8, 4.64)
The struggling Lugo is making his first appearance since August 11th against Philadelphia and is trying to end a string of three straight poor starts. He failed to complete six innings in any of those three starts and was blasted for a total of 13 runs in 16 innings. Lugo last saw Washington on July 4th and was tagged for six runs on 10 hits over five innings in a loss.
Roark is trending the other way, compiling four consecutive strong starts and earned a win at Houston on Tuesday by allowing two earned runs while striking out seven in 5.2 innings. Roark allowed more than three earned runs in just one of his last nine starts. He will be making his second start of the season against the Mets and allowed three runs on seven hits and three walks in 6.2 innings against them on April 21st, but received a no-decision.
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There is no overnight line for this game, but I’m taking the Nationals runline no matter what. The Nationals may be missing some key bats, but they have enough depth to put together a lineup that is better than anything New York can roll out right now. Plus, the pitching matchup is one-sided in my opinion. You may be better off watching the Sunday Night Football game instead.
Pick: Nationals -1.5 +115
BETTING TRENDS:
W/L TRENDS
| NY Mets |
- Mets are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Mets are 13-39 in their last 52 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mets are 3-10 in their last 13 games on grass.
- Mets are 3-10 in their last 13 overall.
- Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Mets are 1-7 in their last 8 Sunday games.
- Mets are 8-2 in Lugos last 10 road starts.
- Mets are 8-2 in Lugos last 10 starts vs. National League East.
- Mets are 14-4 in Lugos last 18 starts.
- Mets are 14-4 in Lugos last 18 starts on grass.
|
| Washington |
- Nationals are 8-2 in their last 10 Sunday games.
- Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 second games of a double-header.
- Nationals are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Nationals are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 11-5 in their last 16 games on grass.
- Nationals are 11-5 in their last 16 overall.
- Nationals are 43-20 in their last 63 during game 4 of a series.
- Nationals are 7-2 in Roarks last 9 Sunday starts.
- Nationals are 5-2 in Roarks last 7 starts.
- Nationals are 5-2 in Roarks last 7 starts on grass.
- Nationals are 13-6 in Roarks last 19 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 2-5 in Roarks last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 1-5 in Roarks last 6 home starts.
- Nationals are 0-4 in Roarks last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
|
OU TRENDS
| NY Mets |
- Under is 4-0 in Mets last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-1 in Mets last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 6-2 in Mets last 8 during game 4 of a series.
- Under is 6-2 in Mets last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 19-7-1 in Mets last 27 second games of a double-header.
- Under is 5-2 in Mets last 7 vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Lugos last 4 starts vs. National League East.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Lugos last 6 road starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts overall.
|
| Washington |
- Under is 7-1-2 in Nationals last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Nationals last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Nationals last 8 home games.
- Under is 6-1-2 in Nationals last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 11-2-2 in Nationals last 15 on grass.
- Under is 11-2-2 in Nationals last 15 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Nationals last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 during game 4 of a series.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Nationals last 5 Sunday games.
- Under is 18-7-1 in Nationals last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 6-0 in Roarks last 6 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Roarks last 4 home starts.
- Under is 6-0 in Roarks last 6 starts overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Roarks last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Roarks last 6 starts vs. National League East.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Roarks last 8 starts with 4 days of rest.
|
HEAD TO HEAD
- Under is 3-0-1 in Roarks last 4 home starts vs. Mets.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Roarks last 6 starts vs. Mets.
- Over is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings.
- Nationals are 7-3 in Roarks last 10 starts vs. Mets.
- Mets are 2-7 in the last 9 meetings.
- Mets are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Washington.
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