Marshall (8-4) vs South Florida (7-5)
When: Thursday, December 20th 2018
Where: Raymond James Stadium,
Tampa, Florida
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Marshall -3/54.5
In its been a tale of two seasons for the South Florida Bulls, who look to end things on a high-note when they ‘host’ the 2018 Gasparilla Bowl against the Marshall Thundering Herd. USF was not supposed to do all that much this year after losing a lot of starters from the 2017 team, but ran off seven straight wins to start the season, then reality set in. The Bulls were demolished in their last five games by an average of 19.4 points and ended the season 7-5. South Florida has won five of their last seven bowls, but will face a Marshall program that has won six bowl games in a row including the last five with head coach Doc Holliday. South Florida did suffer some key injuries down the stretch, but hope to be healthy after the four-week layoff following the 38-10 loss to No. 7 Central Florida on November 23rd. The Bulls averaged 35.6 points during their 7-0 start, but will face a defense that allowed 22 points per game and tied for sixth in the nation with 39 sacks. USF was without starting quarterback Blake Barnett in two of its last three games because of a shoulder injury and he may return, but he will be getting calls from a different offensive coordinator after Sterlin Gilbert was hired as McNeese State’s new coach. Marshall’s run defense is very solid, allowing just 103.9 yards per game. The unit is led by linebacker Chase Hancock (98 tackles) and junior lineman Ty Tyler, who has a team-high eight sacks.
Marshall ended the season with three-straight conference victories before getting blown out by three touchdowns in an added game at Virginia Tech. Freshman quarterback Isaiah Green threw for 2,238 yards with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the season, but completed only 55.7 percent of his passes. The Herd lost running back Tyler King (655 yards) after seven games, but freshman Brenden Knox didn’t miss a beat with 485 yards in the last four including 204 against Virginia Tech. Senior receiver Tyre Brady is a Conference USA first-team pick and had 66 catches for 914 yards and nine touchdowns this year.
Barnett was the starter from the beginning, but had just 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 10 games, and sophomore Chris Oladokun or junior Brett Kean could be under center if Barnett is unable to go. The offensive weapons include junior running back Jordan Cronkrite (1,095 yards), and wide receivers senior Tyre McCants (58 catches, 612 yards, three TDs) and junior tight end Mitchell Wilcox (40 receptions, 506 yards, two TDs). The defense, which is ranked 103rd overall and 121st versus the run, is led by senior linebacker Khalid McGee (104 tackles).
Marshall is going to be one of my more confident picks here. I don’t care that USF is playing in their home stadium. They were really bad in the second half of the season and even their 7-0 start was lucky. The Herd have a big advantage on defense and should easily win this game.
Pick: Marshall -2.5
Betting Trends:
- Thundering Herd are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
- Thundering Herd are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games.
- Thundering Herd are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
- Thundering Herd are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Thundering Herd are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Thundering Herd are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 non-conference games.
- Thundering Herd are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Thundering Herd are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
- Thundering Herd are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Thundering Herd are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Thundering Herd are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Thundering Herd are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Thundering Herd are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Thundering Herd are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
- Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Bulls are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Bulls are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
- Bulls are 9-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bulls are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
- Bulls are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bulls are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 Thursday games.
- Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. CUSA.
- Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in December.
- Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Thundering Herd last 4 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in Thundering Herd last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
- Over is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 10-3 in Thundering Herd last 13 games on grass.
- Over is 16-5 in Thundering Herd last 21 non-conference games.
- Under is 5-2 in Thundering Herd last 7 Bowl games.
- Under is 5-2 in Thundering Herd last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Thundering Herd last 7 bowl games.
- Over is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 Bowl games.
- Over is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 bowl games.
- Under is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 games on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 9-3 in Bulls last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Over is 14-5 in Bulls last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-3 in Bulls last 11 home games.
- Under is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 Thursday games.
- Under is 17-7-1 in Bulls last 25 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 21-9-1 in Bulls last 31 games following a straight up loss.
