Louisville (23-5) at Florida State (23-4)
When: Monday, February 24th, 2020
Where: Donald L. Tucker Center,
Tallahassee, FL
Time: 7:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Florida State -2.5/140
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The battle for the Atlantic Coast Conference regular season title is coming down to the last few weeks and we have a logjam up top with three teams separated by just a half-game. Two of those teams play Monday night as the first place Louisville Cardinals visit the Florida State Seminoles, who are tied with Duke for second place. Florida State has rebounded from a loss at Duke with three straight victories including a 67-61 win at North Carolina State, who were coming off an upset of the Blue Devils last week. The Seminoles have won six of seven overall and are 5-2 against the spread in that span, but are just 6-8 ATS in Tallahassee this season. Louisville unexpectedly lost two straight road games in the middle of the month but have responded with blowout wins over Syracuse and North Carolina – both at home. The Cardinals’ only home loss came at the hands of Florida State back on Jan. 4, a 78-65 Seminoles triumph. In that game, Louisville shot just 38.7 percent from the field, while allowing the Seminoles to hit 55.2 percent.
Louisville led North Carolina 36-23 at the half and never looked back. Forwards Jordan Nwora and Malik Williams put in 18 and 17-points respectively, while guard David Johnson chipped in nine points. Nwora is the Cardinals’ only double-digit scorer, averaging 18.2 per contest, 7.4 rebounds and shoots 41.6 percent from beyond the arc. Louisville is the 10th-best three-point shooting team in the nation (38.3 percent), while also being one of the best in preventing opponents shooting – 38.5 percent FG% (13th), 30.0 percent 3-point (41st). Louisville averages 75.4 points this season while allowing only 63.7. The Cardinals will host Virginia Tech and play at Virginia to finish their regular season.
Florida State actually trailed the upstart Wolfpack 32-27 at the half before taking over and had five players scored in double-figures. Starting guards M.J. Walker and Devin Vassell led the way with 12 and 11 points respectively, while Patrick Williams came off the bench and contributed 12 points of his own. Trent Forest (10 points) along with forward Malik Osborne (9 points) also had solid games. Vassell leads the team in scoring (12.9), rebounding (5.3), field goal percentage (48.4), and blocks (1.1). Florida State’s offense has been very efficient this season, averaging 75.6 points and 35 rebounds with a 45.8 field goal percentage and a 36.4 percent three-point percentage. Florida State has three more games remaining after Monday with the next one at Clemson on Saturday.
Florida State has been really good at home straight up and ATS (10-4) and the Cardinals have not looked good in their last two road games. The Seminoles have won three of the last four meetings and will get the win here.
Pick: Florida State -2.5
Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Cardinals are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Cardinals are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 Monday games.
Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Seminoles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games as a road underdog.
Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 Monday games.
Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 8-3-1 in Cardinals last 12 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Seminoles last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Seminoles last 5 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Seminoles last 5 Monday games.
Over is 4-1-1 in Seminoles last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 4-1 in Seminoles last 5 home games.
Over is 7-2 in Seminoles last 9 games as a favorite.
Over is 7-3 in Seminoles last 10 overall.
Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
