Detroit (3-4-1) at Chicago (3-5)
When: Sunday, November 10th, 2019
Where: Soldier Field,
Chicago, Illinois
Time: 1:00 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Chicago -3/44.5
The Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions are set to meet on Thanksgiving Day in the Motor City, and one or both might be out of the playoff race unless they turn things around quickly. First up, the Bears host the Lions this Sunday afternoon in a key NFC North matchup with Chicago looking to snap a four-game losing streak after a dreadful 22-14 loss at Philadelphia last week in which the team gained a total of nine yards in the first half and went three-and-out five times to start the game. Chicago has been getting a lot of criticism of their offense and primarily quarterback Mitchell Trubisky in falling to last place in the division after being tabbed a preseason contender. The Lions have lost four of five with a defense that ranks 31st in the league and has surrendered at least 23 points in six straight contests. The Minnesota Vikings currently occupy the final wild card spot in the NFC at 6-3, so a loss here could virtually eliminate one of these struggling teams. Despite losing four in a row against the spread, the Bears opened as 3-point favorites at many offshore shops. That line has dipped to Bears -2.5 with more than 60 percent of bettors supporting the visiting Lions. Chicago is just 2-6 against the spread overall, while Detroit hasn’t been much better, losing four of its last five, while dropped three straight ATS. Detroit had won nine of 10 meetings before Chicago took both matchups a year ago including 34-22 at home.
Detroit’s defense is ranked 31st against the pass (288.4) and 27th in both rushing defense (135.8) and average points allowed (27.1). The unit has allowed at least 400 yards in five of eight games this season and surrendered at least 20 points in each contest since Week 2. Matthew Stafford is doing his best to keep up with teams, leading the league at 312.4 yards per game with 19 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He completed 26-of-41 last week for a season-high 406 yards, with three touchdowns and a pick in a losing effort against the Raiders. Detroit’s running game ranks 21st, averaging only 96 yards per game on the ground. Receivers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. each reeled in a touchdown pass last Sunday to give the duo 13 of them on the season. The Lions will host NFC East-leading Dallas next week.
If Trubisky can’t move the ball Sunday against this Lions defense, he might not be on the field in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. He threw three touchdowns with no picks at Detroit last season, but it’s still hard to have any trust in the former No. 2 overall pick right now. This week Trubisky reportedly requested that all TVs in the Bears facility be turned off so he wouldn’t be distracted by media criticism. He completed just 47.6 percent of his passes last week for 125 yards in a loss to Philadelphia. Rookie running back David Montgomery appears to have overcome a slow start and had two touchdowns last week. Fellow back Tarik Cohen has rushed for a touchdown in each of his last two home games versus Detroit. Wide receiver Allen Robinson has three touchdowns in as many career games against the Lions, including two scores in the last home outing. The Bears defense continues to keep them in games, ranking ninth overall and sixth in points allowed (18.0).
The Bears have been bad lately, but Detroit hasn’t been much better and I think Trubisky can have some success at home. I do believe Chicago will attack the Lions on the ground, while the defense will keep Stafford in check.
Pick: Bears -2.5 (More Week 10 Free Picks)
Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 10.
Lions are 10-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Lions are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games on grass.
Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Lions are 13-27-2 ATS in their last 42 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC North.
Lions are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Lions are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC North.
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Bears are 10-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Bears are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 vs. NFC.
Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 10.
Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Over is 5-1 in Lions last 6 games overall.
Under is 5-1 in Lions last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Lions last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Lions last 5 vs. NFC.
Under is 4-1 in Lions last 5 vs. NFC North.
Under is 8-3 in Lions last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Lions last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-2 in Lions last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 7-3 in Lions last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 35-17 in Lions last 52 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Bears last 5 vs. NFC North.
Over is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games in Week 10.
Under is 8-1 in Bears last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Bears last 7 home games.
Under is 6-1 in Bears last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 10-2 in Bears last 12 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 9-2 in Bears last 11 games on grass.
Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 8-2 in Bears last 10 vs. NFC.
Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 10-3 in Bears last 13 games overall.
Under is 6-2 in Bears last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 8-3 in Bears last 11 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Lions are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Chicago.
Lions are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
