Jets vs Broncos Spread, Trends, and Free Pick November 17th, 2011

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The point spread for Thursday Night’s AFC contest between the New York Jets and Denver Broncos opened up at -4 on Tuesday afternoon in favor of the Jets at Bodog Sportsbook. As of Wednesday night, the line has jumped to 7. The total opened up at 40.5 and has not moved. Right now, 83% of the betting public is on the Jets and 69% are on the under. To help you better decide who to bet, take a look at these trends for tonight.

Jets are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Jets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.

Broncos are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.

Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Under is 4-1 in Jets last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Over is 18-7-1 in Jets last 26 road games.

Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Over is 20-8 in Broncos last 28 games on grass.

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Denver.

My Prediction: Tim Tebow mania comes to prime-time tonight as the Jets visit the Broncos. Tebow has not only created excitement in Denver, but he’s always put the Broncos right back in the playoff hunt. At 4-5, Denver is just a game out of the division lead. The honeymoon ends tonight. Now that the entire world knows the Broncos are going to run 85% of the time, teams will be more prepared. Nobody will be more prepared than Rex Ryan and the Jets defense. Tebow is going to have to throw more than 8 times if they want to win tonight. If that happens, the Jets got them right where they want. New York has their own problems on offense scoring only 16 points against the worst defense in the league last week. The side is a tough call so I’m going to go with the under tonight because both teams will struggle to score 20.

UNDER 40.5

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