Iowa State (8-4) vs Washington State (10-2)
When: Friday, December 28th 2018
Where: Alamodome,
San Antonio, Texas
Time: 9:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Washington State -6/54.5
Two teams that came very close to playing in a New Year’s Day bowl game will settle for a battle in San Antonio as the Iowa State Cyclones take on the Washington State Cougars in the 27th Alamo Bowl. Iowa State shook off a slow start before turning it on in the second half of the season behind freshman quarterback Brock Purdy to tie for third in the Big 12 with West Virginia. The Mountaineers were ranked No. 6 in the coaches poll on October 13th when the Cyclones beat them 30-14 to earn the tiebreaker, while West Virginia plays earlier today in the less-prestigious Camping World Bowl in Orlando. Purdy made his first career start in that game and threw three touchdown passes, and has led Iowa State to a 6-1 mark as a starter. Washington State’s dream season ended abruptly on November 23rd in the snow against Apple Cup rival Washington, losing 28-15 and missing out on a chance to play for the Pac-12 Championship and Rose Bowl berth. The Cougars are a pass-happy offense under the guidance of head coach Mike Leach and quarterback Gardner Minshew, who passed for 4,477 yards and 36 touchdowns this season. Leach has faced Iowa State four times in his career, owning a 3-1 mark while coaching Texas Teach from 2000-2009. Both teams has surprisingly good defenses, with Iowa State ranking first in the Big 12 during the regular season, allowing an average of 22.5 points a game. The Cougars allowed just 23.1 points a game and were 29th in the country in yards allowed per game (345.9). Washington State ranked second-to-last in rushing offense among 129 FBS teams during the regular season (83.2).
Iowa State doesn’t rush the ball well either, ranking last in the Big 12 at 124.3 yards a game, but they do have a stud running back in junior David Montgomery, who averaged 99.3 yards a game and was Iowa State’s lone first-team all-conference selection. Montgomery gained 1,092 rushing yards and 102 receiving despite missing a 48-42 victory against Oklahoma State on October 6th. He came back from that injury sooner than expected and had a season-high 189 yards the following week in the upset win over West Virginia and enters the Alamo Bowl with back-to-back 100-yard performances. Head coach Matt Campbell has guided the Cyclones to their second straight bowl game – winning 21-20 versus Memphis in last year’s Liberty Bowl.
Washington State players don’t want to admit it, but the snowy conditions in the Apple Cup played a big role in their loss to Washington last month, as Minshew didn’t throw a touchdown pass for the first time this season. He was also held to just 152 passing yards after throwing for at least 319 in every other game. Minshew will have perfect conditions this time around inside the Alamodome. The Cougars have nine receivers who caught at least 25 passes this season and all but one of them found the end zone at least once, led by Davontavean Martin and Easop Winston’s eight touchdowns each.
This Iowa State team comes in with a lot of confidence and momentum, winning seven of their final eight, while the Cougars are feeling they deserved a better bowl-bid. Leach’s team has looked really bad in their last three bowl games, scoring 20, 12, and 17 with potent offenses. They are also 1-3 in the last four postseason trips. Look for the Cyclones to pull off the minor upset.
Pick: Iowa State +3
Betting Trends:
- Cyclones are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cyclones are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cyclones are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.
- Cyclones are 15-6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cyclones are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games on grass.
- Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
- Cyclones are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
- Cyclones are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Cougars are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cougars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
- Cougars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
- Cougars are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cougars are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss.
- Cougars are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cougars are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Cougars are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Friday games.
- Cougars are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
- Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Cyclones last 6 Bowl games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Cyclones last 5 non-conference games.
- Under is 4-0 in Cyclones last 4 Friday games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Cyclones last 5 games in December.
- Over is 6-0 in Cyclones last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Cyclones last 7 neutral site games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Cyclones last 6 bowl games.
- Under is 11-1-1 in Cyclones last 13 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-1 in Cyclones last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Cyclones last 5 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Cyclones last 5 games overall.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Cyclones last 9 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Cyclones last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Cougars last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Over is 4-0 in Cougars last 4 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Cougars last 5 games on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Cougars last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-2-1 in Cougars last 10 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Cougars last 9 Friday games.
- Over is 11-4 in Cougars last 15 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 8-3 in Cougars last 11 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Cougars last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
