Indians vs Red Sox Preview & Free Pick | Prediction [8/20/18]

Cleveland (71-52) at Boston (88-37)
When: Monday, August 20th 2018
Where: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: MLB Network
Opening Odds: Cleveland -120/8.5

We have just over a month left in the 2018 MLB regular season, and two of the A.L.’s best are meeting for the first time, as the Central-leading Cleveland Indians visit the East-leading Boston Red Sox for the first of four on Monday. Boston owns the best record in the majors at 88-37 are coming off a rare 2-0 home loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday – just their 10th defeat in the last 47 games. The Red Sox, who are 9.5 games clear of the New York Yankees in the American League East, have not suffered back-to-back losses since June 19-20 and are 10-0-3 in their last 13 series. Things were so rare on Sunday, that even J.D. Martinez didn’t reach base safely – the first time in 51 home games. Boston will need more offense when they take on a Cleveland team coming off an 8-0 win against Baltimore on Sunday. The Tribe pitching staff has allowed an average of just two runs a game over their last six. The Indians, who own a 12-game lead over Minnesota in the AL Central, will go with ace Corey Kluber against Boston’s Rick Porcello in a battle of former Cy Young Award winners. Indians DH Edwin Encarnacion (hand) will take batting practice on Monday and is eligible to come off the disabled list Tuesday. The Red Sox edged the Indians 4-3 in the 2017 season series including two of three at Fenway Park.

Pitchers: Indians – Corey Kluber (15-6, 2.68 ERA) | Red Sox – Rick Porcello (15-5, 4.04)

Kluber is coming off another solid start against Cincinnati, pitching seven innings and allowing just a run on five hits while striking out seven en route to his 15th victory. Kluber has allowed two earned runs or less in three of his last four starts, pitching at least seven innings in each. He struck out 12 in 7.2 innings against Boston last season but allowed two runs to take the tough-luck loss.

Porcello has been a little inconsistent since the All-Star Break, alternating solid outings with duds, and is coming off one of those good ones, allowing one run and two hits while recording 10 strikeouts in seven innings. Porcello allowed seven runs over four innings at Toronto in his previous turn and four runs to Minnesota two starts prior to that. He did not get a chance to face Cleveland in 2017 as he is seeing the Indians for the first time since suffering a loss in the 2016 AL Division Series.

The Indians are quietly playing their best baseball of the season and their offense and pitching are working in tandem. Cleveland has the edge in this pitching matchup and I like Kluber in a big game like this. This will be a great four-game series, but the Tribe get the opener.

Pick: Indians -105

BETTING TRENDS:

• Indians are 5-0 in their last 5 road games.
• Indians are 7-1 in their last 8 overall.
• Indians are 7-1 in their last 8 games on grass.
• Indians are 12-2 in their last 14 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Indians are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a win.
• Indians are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Indians are 20-7 in their last 27 Monday games.
• Indians are 20-7 in their last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Indians are 50-18 in their last 68 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Indians are 54-25 in their last 79 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Indians are 35-17 in their last 52 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Indians are 6-1 in Kluber’s last 7 Monday starts.
• Indians are 4-1 in Kluber’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
• Indians are 38-13 in Kluber’s last 51 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Indians are 22-8 in Kluber’s last 30 road starts.
• Indians are 11-4 in Kluber’s last 15 starts vs. American League East.
• Indians are 16-6 in Kluber’s last 22 starts during game 1 of a series.
• Indians are 39-16 in Kluber’s last 55 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Indians are 50-21 in Kluber’s last 71 starts on grass.
• Indians are 52-22 in Kluber’s last 74 starts.
• Indians are 36-16 in Kluber’s last 52 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Indians are 37-18 in Kluber’s last 55 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Indians are 0-4 in Kluber’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

• Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 Monday games.
• Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
• Red Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. American League Central.
• Red Sox are 21-5 in their last 26 during game 1 of a series.
• Red Sox are 39-12 in their last 51 overall.
• Red Sox are 46-15 in their last 61 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Red Sox are 42-14 in their last 56 games on grass.
• Red Sox are 44-16 in their last 60 home games.
• Red Sox are 41-15 in their last 56 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 37-14 in their last 51 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 20-8 in their last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Red Sox are 63-27 in their last 90 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Red Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 42-19 in their last 61 games following a loss.
• Red Sox are 40-19 in their last 59 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Red Sox are 4-0 in Porcello’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Red Sox are 8-1 in Porcello’s last 9 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 4-1 in Porcello’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Red Sox are 4-1 in Porcello’s last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
• Red Sox are 8-2 in Porcello’s last 10 starts.
• Red Sox are 16-5 in Porcello’s last 21 starts on grass.
• Red Sox are 8-3 in Porcello’s last 11 home starts.
• Red Sox are 20-8 in Porcello’s last 28 starts with 5 days of rest.
• Red Sox are 10-4 in Porcello’s last 14 Monday starts.
• Red Sox are 7-3 in Porcello’s last 10 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

• Under is 4-0 in Indians last 4 overall.
• Under is 4-0 in Indians last 4 on grass.
• Under is 4-0-1 in Indians last 5 vs. American League East.
• Under is 4-0 in Indians last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Under is 4-0 in Indians last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 3-1-1 in Indians last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 5-2 in Indians last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Under is 5-2 in Indians last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 7-3 in Indians last 10 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 9-4 in Indians last 13 during game 1 of a series.
• Over is 5-0 in Kluber’s last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 6-0 in Kluber’s last 6 road starts.
• Over is 4-0 in Kluber’s last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 4-0-1 in Kluber’s last 5 starts vs. American League East.
• Over is 9-1-1 in Kluber’s last 11 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 7-1 in Kluber’s last 8 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 12-3-1 in Kluber’s last 16 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Over is 16-4-1 in Kluber’s last 21 starts on grass.
• Over is 16-4-1 in Kluber’s last 21 starts overall.
• Over is 7-2 in Kluber’s last 9 Monday starts.
• Over is 5-2 in Kluber’s last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.

• Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 Monday games.
• Under is 10-1-2 in Red Sox last 13 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1-1 in Red Sox last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 during game 1 of a series.
• Under is 6-2-1 in Red Sox last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Under is 3-1-1 in Red Sox last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Under is 22-8-2 in Red Sox last 32 home games.
• Under is 19-7-2 in Red Sox last 28 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Under is 5-2-1 in Red Sox last 8 overall.
• Under is 10-4-2 in Red Sox last 16 on grass.
• Under is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 vs. American League Central.
• Under is 5-2-1 in Red Sox last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Under is 5-2-1 in Red Sox last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 6-0 in Porcello’s last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Under is 5-1 in Porcello’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
• Over is 4-1 in Porcello’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
• Over is 4-1 in Porcello’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in Porcello’s last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
• Under is 16-5 in Porcello’s last 21 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 3-1-2 in Porcello’s last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 5-2-1 in Porcello’s last 8 home starts.
• Over is 12-5-1 in Porcello’s last 18 starts overall.

• Under is 4-1-2 in the last 7 meetings in Boston.
• Under is 4-1 in Kluber’s last 5 starts vs. Red Sox.
• Over is 3-1-2 in the last 6 meetings.

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