Indians vs Red Sox Preview, Odds, Trends, & Free Pick [7/31/17]

By
Jay Cooper
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Cleveland (57-46) at Boston (57-49)
When: Monday, July 31st 2017
Where: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Cleveland -130/10.5

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The Boston Red Sox continue a stretch of playing the two hottest teams in the American League when they begin a three-game series with the Cleveland Indians on Monday night. The Red Sox dropped three of four over the weekend to another hot AL Central team as they failed to hold onto a lead late on Sunday after snapping the Kansas City Royals’ nine-game winning streak on Saturday in extra innings. The Indians had a nine-game winning streak come to an end on Sunday afternoon with a 3-1 loss at the Chicago White Sox. Despite the setback, Cleveland got yet another strong performance from a starting pitcher as Josh Tomlin had a no-hitter through four innings before being removed due to hamstring tightness. Cleveland’s starters have posted 2.97 ERA in the last 10 games to help the team maintain a two-game edge over the equally hot Royals in the Central. The one outlier from the staff over this ten game stretch came from Mike Clevinger, who will try to redeem himself when he goes up against Boston veteran Doug Fister tonight. The Red Sox will start the week just one-half game behind the New York Yankees in the AL East as they continue their ten-game homestand. Boston hopes to welcome back second baseman Dustin Pedroia, who sat out the last two games with a minor knee injury. The Tribe are also without their starting second baseman as Jason Kipnis (hamstring) began a rehab assignment at Triple-A Columbus on Sunday but his return to the big club is still to be determined.

Pitchers: Indians – Mike Clevinger (5-3, 3.20 ERA) | Red Sox – Doug Fister (0-5, 7.46)

Clevinger was hit hard for six runs – five earned – on nine hits and two walks in 4.1 innings against the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday but came away with a no-decision thanks to the offense supplying him plenty of support in the 11-7 win. Clevinger allowed a total of two earned runs and 10 hits in 24 innings prior to that dud against the Angels. He is making his first career appearance against the Red Sox and is 4-1 with a 2.15 ERA in seven road starts this season.

Fister is back in the rotation after two relief appearances against Seattle last week to take the spot of David Price, who was placed on the 10-day disabled list with elbow soreness. Fister has failed to complete five innings in any of his last three starts and was bounced from the rotation after surrendering six runs on seven hits and four walks in 4.1 innings against Toronto on July 20th. Fister has plenty of experience against Cleveland from his time with Detroit in the AL Central and is 5-4 with a 3.13 ERA in 16 career starts against them.

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I have zero confidence in Fister, but at the same time, I’m not a big fan of Clevinger despite his solid season. He was hit hard last time out and I can see Boston getting to him early. This is a big total, but these two offenses are capable of putting up big innings on a warm summer night.

Pick: Over 10.5 +110

W/L TRENDS

Cleveland
  • Indians are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
  • Indians are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Indians are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
  • Indians are 5-0 in their last 5 Monday games.
  • Indians are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Indians are 9-1 in their last 10 overall.
  • Indians are 9-1 in their last 10 games on grass.
  • Indians are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Indians are 16-5 in their last 21 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Indians are 7-3 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Indians are 5-2 in Clevinger’s last 7 road starts.
  • Indians are 5-2 in Clevinger’s last 7 starts.
  • Indians are 5-2 in Clevinger’s last 7 starts on grass.
  • Indians are 1-4 in Clevinger’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
  • Indians are 1-4 in Clevinger’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
Boston
  • Red Sox are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Red Sox are 14-6 in their last 20 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Red Sox are 15-7 in their last 22 games following a loss.
  • Red Sox are 2-6 in their last 8 overall.
  • Red Sox are 2-6 in their last 8 games on grass.

OU TRENDS

Cleveland
  • Over is 5-0 in Indians last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-0-1 in Indians last 5 games following a loss.
  • Under is 6-1 in Indians last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 4-1 in Indians last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in Indians last 5 during game 1 of a series.
  • Over is 5-2-1 in Indians last 8 road games.
  • Over is 7-3-1 in Indians last 11 vs. American League East.
  • Under is 33-15-4 in Indians last 52 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 11-1 in Clevinger’s last 12 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-1 in Clevinger’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
  • Under is 14-5 in Clevinger’s last 19 starts on grass.
  • Under is 14-5 in Clevinger’s last 19 starts overall.
  • Under is 5-2 in Clevinger’s last 7 road starts.
  • Under is 5-2 in Clevinger’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Boston
  • Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 vs. American League Central.
  • Under is 7-2 in Red Sox last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Under is 19-7-1 in Red Sox last 27 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 19-7-1 in Red Sox last 27 home games.
  • Under is 18-7-2 in Red Sox last 27 Monday games.
  • Under is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 overall.
  • Under is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 on grass.
  • Under is 27-13-2 in Red Sox last 42 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

HEAD TO HEAD

  • Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Boston.
  • Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.

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