Cleveland (13-10) at Houston (15-9)
When: Thursday, April 25th, 2019
Where: Minute Maid Park,
Houston, Texas
Time: 8:10 ET | TV: STO,
AT&T SportsNet Southwest
Opening Odds: Houston -160/7.5
The Houston Astros have used a dominant home record to catapult themselves back atop the National League West standings but will now have to deal with one of the American League’s best hurlers. Trevor Bauer and the Cleveland Indians come to town for a four-game series beginning Thursday night at Minute Maid Park, where the Astros are 8-1. Houston outscored the Minnesota Twins 17-5 in taking the final two games of their three-game set after dropping the opener 9-5 – the Astros only home loss this season. Bauer will go up against former UCLA teammate Gerrit Cole in Thursday’s opener, and the right-hander is looking to bounce back from a disastrous outing. The two pitchers met last May and weren’t involved in the decision of Cleveland’s 14-inning victory. Bauer struck out 13 while allowing four runs and five hits over 7.1 innings and Cole K’d eight while giving up three runs and four hits over seven innings. Josh Reddick comes in swinging a hot bat for Houston and is 15-for-28 over his last seven games after a two-run homer in Wednesday’s 7-1 victory over Minnesota Twins. Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez raised his average to .184 after going 3-for-4 in the Indians’ 6-2 over the Miami Marlins, snapping a three-game skid.
Pitchers: Indians – Trevor Bauer (2-1, 2.20 ERA) | Astros – Gerrit Cole (1-3, 5.22)
Bauer is coming off a tough no-decision against the Atlanta Braves last time out despite striking out 10 and allowing two runs in 6.1 innings. He has allowed five or fewer hits in four of his five starts this season and is holding opponents to just a .167 batting average. Bauer has started against the Astros eight times and is 7-0 with a 3.18 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 51 innings – with the lone no-decision coming in last year’s matchup against Cole.
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As I mentioned above, Cole is coming off a complete dud of a start, allowing nine runs (eight earned) and nine hits in 4.1 innings in a loss to the Texas Rangers, which ballooned his ERA up over five. Cole had allowed five or fewer hits in each of his first four starts and has thrown 99 pitches or more in all five outings. He is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA in two career starts against the Indians.
Don’t look at Cole’s overall numbers, because they’re skewed from the last outing. That won’t happen again against one of the worst hitting teams in the league. Bauer is a Cy Young candidate, but the Astros are swinging some hot bats and will get enough run to back Cole.
Bobby Babowski has 1 free prediction on his Free MLB Picks page for Thursday. He is 42-30 on the season after a 7-2 run!
Pick: Astros -160
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BETTING TRENDS:
Indians are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Indians are 6-2 in their last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Indians are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
Indians are 48-20 in their last 68 Thursday games.
Indians are 7-3 in their last 10 games following a win.
Indians are 3-7 in their last 10 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Indians are 2-5 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Indians are 8-0 in Bauer’s last 8 Thursday starts.
Indians are 7-1 in Bauer’s last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Indians are 6-1 in Bauer’s last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Indians are 4-1 in Bauer’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Indians are 4-1 in Bauer’s last 5 starts vs. American League West.
Indians are 6-2 in Bauer’s last 8 road starts.
Indians are 13-5 in Bauer’s last 18 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Indians are 12-5 in Bauer’s last 17 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Indians are 36-15 in Bauer’s last 51 starts with 4 days of rest.
Indians are 9-4 in Bauer’s last 13 starts.
Indians are 9-4 in Bauer’s last 13 starts on grass.
Indians are 29-14 in Bauer’s last 43 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Astros are 10-3 in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 21-7 in their last 28 home games.
Astros are 56-22 in their last 78 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Astros are 5-2 in their last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 37-15 in their last 52 games on grass.
Astros are 41-17 in their last 58 vs. American League Central.
Astros are 7-3 in their last 10 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 48-21 in their last 69 during game 1 of a series.
Astros are 9-4 in their last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Astros are 58-26 in their last 84 games following a win.
Astros are 47-22 in their last 69 overall.
Astros are 1-4 in their last 5 Thursday games.
Astros are 0-4 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Indians last 5 Thursday games.
Under is 5-1 in Indians last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 4-1 in Indians last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-0 in Bauer’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Bauer’s last 6 starts vs. American League West.
Under is 20-4-5 in Bauer’s last 29 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 43-10-7 in Bauer’s last 60 road starts.
Over is 4-1 in Bauer’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Over is 4-1 in Bauer’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Bauer’s last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Under is 8-3 in Bauer’s last 11 starts with 4 days of rest.
Under is 38-15-5 in Bauer’s last 58 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Bauer’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 14-6-1 in Bauer’s last 21 starts on grass.
Under is 14-6-1 in Bauer’s last 21 starts overall.
Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 on grass.
Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 home games.
Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-2 in Astros last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 5-2 in Astros last 7 Thursday games.
Under is 5-2 in Astros last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-2-1 in Astros last 8 vs. American League Central.
Under is 23-11-1 in Astros last 35 during game 1 of a series.
Indians are 8-0 in Bauer’s last 8 starts vs. Astros.
Over is 3-0-1 in Bauer’s last 4 starts vs. Astros.
Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Under is 15-5-4 in the last 24 meetings in Houston.
Indians are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings.
Indians are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Houston.
