Denver (3-2) at San Antonio (2-3)
When: Thursday, April 25th, 2019
Where: AT&T Center,
San Antonio, TX
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: TNT
Opening Odds: San Antonio -2.5/208.5
The Denver Nuggets haven’t won a playoff series in 10 years, but after taking the past two games of their best-of-seven first round series with the San Antonio Spurs, they’re one win away. The series shifts to AT&T Center for Game 6 on Thursday – the lone NBA game on the slate – with the Spurs currently set as a 3-point home favorite with a total of 208. San Antonio held the first quarter lead in the first four games of the series, but the Nuggets finally got off to a nice start in Tuesday’s Game 5, holding a 26-19 edge after one quarter. Denver didn’t let up from there, stretching the lead to as many as 30 points in the second half and cruising to a 108-90 home win. The Nuggets should have more confidence coming back to San Antonio after winning there Tuesday for the first time in 14 games. One of the differences thus far in the series is the long range shooting in which the Nuggets hold the edge 41.4 percent to just 33.7 for San Antonio. Should the Spurs win on homecourt Thursday, Game 7 would be back in Denver on Saturday.
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All-Star center Nikola Jokic nearly had another triple-double on Tuesday, recording 16 points, 11 rebounds, and eight assists for his fourth double-double in this his first taste of postseason action. Jokic is averaging 19.6 points, 11.6 rebounds and nine assists in the series, but the brightest spot is the reemergence of Jamal Murray. The point guard was 18-for-46 in the first three games of the series, but is averaging 23.5 points over the past two games while shooting 17-of-30. Backup shooting guard Will Barton had his best game of the series thus far, scoring 17 points in Game 5 and is averaging 14.5 over the past two contests.
Spurs shooting guard DeMar DeRozan is averaging a team-best 22.0 points in the series, but has produced just 19 and 17 points respectively in the last two losses. LaMarcus Aldridge also had 17 points to go along with 10 rebounds in Game 5 and shot over 50 percent for the second straight game. Center Jakob Poeltl missed just one shot on seven attempts to record 12 points Tuesday and is 18-of-27 in the series. Point guard Derrick White is averaging just 10 points on 8-of-19 shooting in the last two games after his career-best 36-point performance on 15-of-21 shooting in Game 3.
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Denver is the better team in this series, but the Spurs and head coach Gregg Popovich are not about to lay down at home. Yes, Denver won at AT&T Center last time out, but have historically been bad there. This series has seven games written all over it. Look for the Spurs to even the series.
Pick: Spurs -3
Nuggets are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Southwest.
Nuggets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
Nuggets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 1 days rest.
Nuggets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Spurs are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS loss.
Spurs are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss.
Spurs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
Spurs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Spurs are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference.
Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Over is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 road games.
Over is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 Thursday games.
Over is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 14-4 in Nuggets last 18 games following a straight up win.
Under is 21-6 in Nuggets last 27 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 8-3 in Nuggets last 11 vs. NBA Southwest.
Over is 5-2 in Nuggets last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 21-9 in Nuggets last 30 overall.
Over is 6-0 in Spurs last 6 Thursday games.
Under is 11-3 in Spurs last 14 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 9-3 in Spurs last 12 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 5-2 in Spurs last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 14-6 in Spurs last 20 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 18-8 in Spurs last 26 overall.
Over is 9-4-1 in Spurs last 14 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Over is 9-4 in Spurs last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
Under is 15-7 in Spurs last 22 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 36-17 in Spurs last 53 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Under is 24-11 in the last 35 meetings in San Antonio.
Favorite is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.