Houston (23-1) at Connecticut (13-11)
When: Thursday, February 14th, 2019
Where: Gampel Pavilion,
Storrs, Connecticut
Time: 7:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Houston -8/139.5
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The Houston Cougars run toward an AAC regular season title had a couple of obstacles in Central Florida and Cincinnati, but after back-to-back wins against those teams, the Cougars are now in complete control of the conference. Houston ended the longest home winning streak in the nation by knocking off UCF last week, thus giving the Cougars the longest such streak. They extended that to 32 consecutive games with a win over then No. 23 Cincinnati on Sunday to take a one-game lead over the Bearcats in the AAC. Houston will now travel to Storrs to take on a reeling Connecticut Huskies team that is near the bottom of the standings. Connecticut played their first game without injured star guard Jalen Adams, and received 20 points and six rebounds from Tyler Polley but dropped a 78-71 decision at Memphis on Sunday for their third loss in four games. UConn is 12-2 on the season at home, but 0-6 on the road in conference games. Houston leads the all-time series 6-5 including four of the last five.
Houston has been doing it all season with defense, ranking second nationally in field-goal percentage defense (36.4 percent), third in 3-point percentage defense (27.0) and sixth in scoring defense (60.7 points). The held Cincinnati scoreless in the final 6:11 on Sunday to help seal the win. Corey Davis Jr. is the reigning AAC Player of the Week for his performance in the two wins over UCF and Cincinnati (21.0 points, 56.6 percent shooting, 4.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.5 steals). Davis leads the team in scoring (15.5 points per game), followed by junior guard Armoni Brooks (13.8, team-high 6.4 rebounds).
The Huskies have won their last four home games by 12, 18, 20, and 24, but will have their toughest home test of the season thus far. Freshman Sidney Wilson (4.4 points) started in place of Adams and recorded 16 points, six rebounds and three blocks, but UConn is down to just seven players who see action. Junior Christian Vital (14.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists) contributed 13 points, nine rebounds, six assists and three steals in the loss at Memphis. Adams (17.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists) is out four to six weeks after spraining the MCL in his left knee.
UConn plays really well at home, but doesn’t have their star player for this tough matchup. Houston is one of the best defensive teams in the country and I don’t see how the Huskies will score enough points to keep this game in single-digits. It’s not easy to lay a bunch of points on the road, but I’ll do it this time.
Pick: Houston -8
Cougars are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Cougars are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Cougars are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Cougars are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win.
Cougars are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. American Athletic Conference.
Cougars are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Cougars are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games overall.
Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. American Athletic Conference.
Huskies are 19-39-1 ATS in their last 59 games following a straight up loss.
Huskies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 15-6 in Cougars last 21 Thursday games.
Under is 7-1 in Huskies last 8 home games.
Under is 7-1 in Huskies last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 overall.
Under is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 vs. American Athletic Conference.
Over is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Under is 37-18 in Huskies last 55 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
