NY Giants (1-7) at San Francisco (2-7)
When: Monday, November 12th 2018
Where: Levi’s Stadium,
Santa Clara, California
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: San Francisco -2.5/44
We thought this Week 10 Monday Night Football matchup in the beginning of the season would be a pretty critical game for both teams in the standings, but 2018 has not gone according to plan for the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have a bit of an excuse with starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo going down early in the season and now down to third-stringer Nick Mullens. The Giants just can’t seem to generate enough offense to keep their defense off the field. New York has dropped five straight including a 20-13 home loss two weeks ago to the Washington Redskins, but have been competitive on the road. Their only victory of the season came at Houston and have covered the spread in three of the four way from MetLife Stadium. San Francisco is coming off a short-bye after taking down the Oakland Raiders last Thursday night behind Mullens’ break-out game. The undrafted free agent threw for 262 yards and three scores in the 34-3 triumph. The Niners have been money on Monday nights, beating the spread in 26 of their last 32 played on that day, but are just 5-14 ATS at home dating back to last season. Head-to-head in this series, the road team and underdog in this matchup is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings including a 31-21 San Francisco win at home last season.
Despite having some of the best offensive weapons in the league in Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley, New York has failed to score more than 18 points in five of their eight games, while Eli Manning has tossed only eight touchdown passes. Beckham is having a decent season despite Manning’s woes, leading the team with 61 catches and has back-to-back performances of at least eight catches and 136 yards. Barkley has nine receptions in each of his last three games and 58 on the season, but he has not exploded yet in the rushing department. The rookie from Penn State has been limited to 38 and 43 yards rushing in the past two games. The Giants defense has held three opponents to exactly 20 points, but the offense has come up short in each one.
Running back Raheem Mostert ran for 86 yards on seven carries including a 52-yard touchdown against Oakland, but fractured his forearm and will be out for a while. Tight end George Kittle could be the most underrated offensive weapon in the league, with at least four receptions in all but one game, while the wide receivers have been inconsistent. The 49ers rank 12th in the league against the run, allowing 102.8 yards per game and 19th against the pass (248.9).
This is probably going to be one ugly contest here, as both offenses are bad. Mullens is not going to duplicate what he did last week against an Oakland team that has given up on the season. New York has been competitive on the road and Eli plays better away from home. I’ll take the points.
Pick: Giants +3.5
Betting Trends:
- Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
- Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Giants are 11-23-1 ATS in their last 35 games in November.
- Giants are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. NFC.
- Giants are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 10.
- Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
- 49ers are 26-6 ATS in their last 32 Monday games.
- 49ers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- 49ers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- 49ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- 49ers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- 49ers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games.
- 49ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
- 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
- 49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 Monday games.
- Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 9-2 in Giants last 11 games in Week 10.
- Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a bye week.
- Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games on grass.
- Over is 18-5 in Giants last 23 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Giants last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-2 in Giants last 8 vs. NFC.
- Under is 11-4 in Giants last 15 games overall.
- Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 road games.
- Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games in November.
- Under is 10-4 in Giants last 14 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Under is 9-4 in Giants last 13 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 13-6 in Giants last 19 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 15-5 in 49ers last 20 games in November.
- Over is 8-3 in 49ers last 11 games on grass.
- Over is 5-2 in 49ers last 7 games in Week 10.
- Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
