Fresno State (8-1) at Boise State (7-2)
When: Friday, November 9th 2018
Where: Albertsons Stadium,
Boise, Idaho
Time: 10:15 ET | TV: ESPN2
Opening Odds: Pickem/54
One of the hottest teams in the country look to keep it going in a place where they have not had much success in recent years as the Fresno State Bulldogs visit the Boise State Broncos and the blue turf on Friday night. This isn’t just an ordinary regular season game because a loss by Boise would almost eliminate them from a chance at the Mountain West Conference title game. Fresno is in a battle with San Diego State in the MWC West Division – leading by one game – and play the Aztecs next week. First things first, though – get through Boise State. The Bulldogs are winless in their last nine trips to Albertsons Stadium and are 23rd in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. Fresno State is on a seven-game winning streak behind a dominant defense that has allowed just 7.2 points per game in five conference tilts. Defensive backs Mike Bell and Tank Kelly have three interceptions apiece but will go up against arguably the best quarterback in the conference in Brett Rypien. Fresno State has a pretty good signal-caller on their side with Marcus McMaryion, who threw for 274 yards and two scores in last week’s 48-3 win over UNLV. The Bulldogs ended the regular season in 2017 with a 28-17 home victory over Boise State before the Broncos returned the favor with a 17-14 win in the Mountain West championship game in Boise the following week.
The Bulldogs’ defense has not allowed more than 30 points in 19 consecutive games and has a future NFL linebacker in junior Jeff Allison (team-high 84 tackles), who left last week’s game early due to injury but is expected to start Friday. Fresno also features a terrific offensive line that has allowed McMaryion to be sacked just five times. McMaryion, who has 20 touchdown passes against three interceptions, has two favorite targets in tight end Jared Rice and wide receiver KeeSean Johnson (62 catches for 858 yards and six scores).
The concern heading into this critical contest is the health of Boise State’s defense, which recorded seven sacks against BYU but lost linebacker Riley Whimpey (team-high 55 tackles) to a torn ACL suffered late in the contest. Fresno native Tyler Horton leads a 74th-ranked pass defense with 30 tackles and four recovered fumbles. The Broncos are 90th in rushing the football, but Alexander Mattison provided a spark with 89 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 21-16 win over BYU.
Let’s get this out of the way first – Fresno State is the better football team. But the question is, can they win on the blue turf against a team they seem to have trouble against. I say yes. They almost beat the Broncos there in last year’s championship game and have a much better team this year. Rypien is the key for this Boise team, who wouldn’t be anywhere without him. I just think the Broncos are going to have a tough time generating any offense against the Bulldogs, which will ultimately lead to a Fresno victory.
Pick: Fresno State -2.5
Betting Trends:
- Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games.
- Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
- Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win.
- Bulldogs are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.
- Bulldogs are 25-4-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.
- Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Bulldogs are 22-4 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games on fieldturf.
- Bulldogs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 18-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bulldogs are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
- Bulldogs are 39-17-1 ATS in their last 57 conference games.
- Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Broncos are 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games.
- Broncos are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Broncos are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 8-0 in Bulldogs last 8 games in November.
- Under is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 9-2 in Bulldogs last 11 road games.
- Under is 17-4 in Bulldogs last 21 conference games.
- Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 7-2 in Bulldogs last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 10-3 in Bulldogs last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 20-6-1 in Bulldogs last 27 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 6-2 in Bulldogs last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 11-4 in Bulldogs last 15 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 7-3 in Bulldogs last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 9-4 in Bulldogs last 13 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 9-2 in Broncos last 11 Friday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-2 in Broncos last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 17-7 in Broncos last 24 home games.
- Over is 11-5 in Broncos last 16 games in November.
- Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Boise State.
- Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
