Florida State (1-1) at Virginia (2-0)
When: Saturday, September 14, 2019
Where: Scott Stadium,
Charlottesville, Virginia
Time: 7:30 ET | TV: ACC Network
Opening Odds: Virginia -6.5/58.5
The Virginia Cavaliers are a touchdown favorite over the Florida State Seminoles? Yes, that’s how far this Florida State program has fallen over the last few seasons and this year is no different so far after two lackluster performances, especially on defense. The Seminoles lost their opener at home to Boise State, blowing a big second half lead, then were almost shocked by Louisiana Monroe in Tallahassee, escaping with a 45-44 win. Meanwhile, Virginia’s program has been on the rise and this is a big opportunity for the Cavaliers here at home to knock off a team that has dominated the all-time series. Florida State owns a 15-3 advantage but will meet for the first time since 2014 and the first time in Charlottesville since 2010. Virginia cruised past William & Mary in their opener, then posted an impressive 30-14 road victory at Pitt and can open the season 3-0 for the first time since 2005. Oddsmakers and PayPerHead services opened this game at Cavaliers -6.5 and it has since been bet up to 7.5 with a total of 58.5.
Defense has been a major issue for the Seminoles after two games. Out of 130 FBS teams, Florida State ranks 124th in total yards allowed (520.0), 119th in pass defense (324.0), 108th in rush defense (196.0) and 120th in points allowed (40.0). Yuck! Boise State gashed them for 621 total yards in Week 1, while ULM managed 419 against Florida State. The offense seems to be just fine and are 8-for-8 in the red zone so far, while averaging 38 points and 463.5 total yards a game. Quarterback James Blackman has passed for 609 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions while Cam Akers has rushed for 309 yards in two games. The Seminoles will host Louisville next weekend.
Virginia’s defense has been a different story, ranking 14th in the country in total defense (228.0) and 15th against the run (70.5) after two games. Offensively, the Cavaliers have been very balanced with quarterback Bryce Perkins passing for 373 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions while leading the team with 112 rushing yards. Freshman running back Mike Hollins had a nice debut last week, rushing for 78 yards on just 11 carries with two scores, while leading wide receiver Joe Reed (11 catches), scored on a 100-yard kickoff return. Virginia will host Old Dominion next Saturday before playing four of their next five on the road.
Not only are these teams going in opposite directions in the win/loss column, but ATS-wise as well. The Seminoles are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall and 1-7-1 in their last nine September games. Virginia is on a 4-1 spread run and is just a better overall team right now. The Florida State defense has too many holes to keep this game close.
Pick: Virginia -7 -130 – buy the half-point (More Week 3 Free Picks)
Betting Trends:
Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Seminoles are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Seminoles are 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS loss.
Seminoles are 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 conference games.
Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Seminoles are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Seminoles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Seminoles are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Seminoles are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September.
Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Cavaliers are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Cavaliers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games.
Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Over is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 road games.
Over is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 games following a straight up win.
Over is 6-0 in Seminoles last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 6-1 in Seminoles last 7 games overall.
Over is 6-1 in Seminoles last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-1 in Seminoles last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Seminoles last 6 games on grass.
Over is 5-1 in Seminoles last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 4-1 in Seminoles last 5 games in September.
Over is 4-1 in Seminoles last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 12-4 in Seminoles last 16 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-1 in Seminoles last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 11-5-1 in Seminoles last 17 conference games.
Over is 9-0 in Cavaliers last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 21-6 in Cavaliers last 27 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Cavaliers last 8 games in September.
Under is 10-4 in Cavaliers last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Under is 25-10-1 in Cavaliers last 36 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 27-11 in Cavaliers last 38 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 17-7-2 in Cavaliers last 26 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 33-16 in Cavaliers last 49 games following a straight up win.
Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Virginia.
Under is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.
