Atlanta (4-6) at New Orleans (9-1)
When: Thursday, November 22nd 2018
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome,
New Orleans, Louisiana
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: New Orleans -10/60.5
The New Orleans Saints are steamrolling toward the playoffs and it seems nobody can stop them, not even the defending Super Bowl champions. New Orleans goes after their 10th-straight victory on Thanksgiving night when they take on the rival Atlanta Falcons at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Saints come in as huge favorites (-13) after throttling the Philadelphia Eagles last week 48-7, outgaining the Super Bowl champs 546-196 and have now scored at least 45 points in three-straight games. Drew Brees continued his MVP-caliber season in throwing for 363 yards and four scores and leads the NFL in QB rating and has 25 TD passes to just one interception. At age 39, Brees has accomplished everything in his Hall of Fame career except an MVP Award. The Falcons postseason hopes took a big hit last week in a 22-19 home loss to the Dallas Cowboys and are now 4-6 on the season. Only 12 of 163 teams since 1990 that have started with that mark, have made the playoffs. New Orleans is looking for the season sweep after pulling out a 43-37 overtime thriller in Week 3. There were lead changes all day, including three in the fourth quarter alone. Brees tied it at 37 with 1:15 left in regulation on a 7-yard scoring run then led the Saints on a seven-minute drive to start the extra session, capped by a 1-yard Brees run to win it. Matt Ryan threw for 374 yards and five touchdowns in the game, while rookie Calvin Ridley had seven catches for 146 yards and three scores. The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings.
After 10 games of the regular season, we pretty much know what Atlanta is all about – high-powered offense and one of the worst defenses in the league. Although the offense ranks sixth in total yards and ninth in the scoring, the ground game has contributed nothing to help out Ryan (3,306 yards, 22 touchdowns, four interceptions) and company. The defense did turn in one of its best efforts last week against Dallas, holding the Cowboys to 323 total yards in the 22-19 loss. Star wide receiver Julio Jones has caught a touchdown pass in three straight games after being kept out of the end zone in the first seven games of the season.
New Orleans also has a terrific passing game, but also can run the ball with anyone behind running backs Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Brees has been especially good in five home games, completing 78.9 percent of his passes for 1,754 yards with 16 touchdowns and no interceptions. The Saints’ defense gives up a lot of passing yards thanks to opponents having to play catch-up a lot. They are second in the NFL in run defense at 77.9 yards a game and 15th in points allowed (23.9).
We know that New Orleans is the better team here, but I’m always afraid to lay this many points in an NFL game, especially a division game. This is one of my least favorite games on the Week 12 board, but I’m inclined to take the points and hope for a backdoor cover.
Pick: Falcons +13
Betting Trends:
- Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Thursday games.
- Falcons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Saints are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
- Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in November.
- Saints are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
- Saints are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up win.
- Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Saints are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 vs. NFC South.
- Saints are 11-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 12.
- Over is 5-1 in Falcons last 6 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 16-5 in Falcons last 21 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 6-2 in Falcons last 8 road games.
- Under is 23-9 in Falcons last 32 games in November.
- Under is 5-2 in Falcons last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 10-4 in Falcons last 14 vs. NFC.
- Under is 10-4 in Falcons last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Saints last 6 Thursday games.
- Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 vs. NFC South.
- Over is 7-1 in Saints last 8 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 7-1 in Saints last 8 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 16-5 in Saints last 21 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 11-4 in Saints last 15 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 19-8-1 in Saints last 28 home games.
- Over is 14-6 in Saints last 20 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-3 in Saints last 10 vs. NFC.
- Under is 7-3 in Saints last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 30-13 in Saints last 43 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Over is 13-6 in Saints last 19 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
- Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in New Orleans.
- Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
- Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in New Orleans.
