Atlanta (4-3) at Carolina (5-3)
When: Sunday, November 5th 2017
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Time: 1:00 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Carolina -1.5/44
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We are into Week 9 of the NFL season and the Atlanta Falcons will be playing their very first division game when they take on their NFC South-rivals the Carolina Panthers in Charlotte on Sunday. The NFC South race is heating up as all four teams play each other this week (Tampa Bay @ New Orleans), with the Saints atop at 5-2, followed by the Panthers and Falcons. That makes this week’s game at Bank of America Stadium pivotal in the race for the playoffs. The Falcons have won the last three meetings, with Matt Ryan passing for 362 yards per game with seven touchdowns and one interception in those contests. Atlanta’s high-powered offense has been racking-up the yards, but the turnovers and ineffectiveness in the redzone are killing them. Carolina is 1-1 in their division, splitting games with the Saints and Bucs, so a loss here would drop them to third place.
Atlanta seems to be experiencing the same type of Super Bowl hangover that Carolina endured last season and it’s starts on offense. Ryan is not having the same success with new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian as he did with Kyle Shanahan. Ryan has only nine touchdown passes and six interceptions through seven games and has struggled in the red zone, as star receiver Julio Jones has just one TD reception. Jones has 25 receptions for 538 yards and two touchdowns in his last three games against the Panthers. Atlanta’s defense has been pretty good, holding three of its last four opponents under 300 total yards, but has only forced four turnovers all season.
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Carolina’s offense is not the same this season, failing to surpass 300 total yards for the second straight game and the fifth time this season in last week’s 17-3 win at Tampa Bay. Cam Newton has thrown more interceptions (11) than touchdown passes (10), and now the Panthers have traded one of his favorite targets in Kelvin Benjamin, who was dealt to Buffalo earlier this week. The only reason they have a winning record thus far is their second-ranked defense, which is allowing just 264.0 yards a game. They are also ranked fourth in points allowed at 17.8, but that can be a little misleading. They’ve held three opponents to exactly three points, but also have allowed four others to score 24 or more.
To me, Carolina has been too inconsistent and they’re banged-up on defense and lost their top wide receiver. Atlanta is slowly rounding into form and will be excited to play their first division game and prove that they still rule the NFC South. Julio Jones is going to break-out big time very, very soon and it could be today.
Pick: Falcons -2
- Falcons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
- Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC South.
- Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Falcons are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.
- Falcons are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win.
- Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
- Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Panthers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 9.
- Panthers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
- Panthers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Panthers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC South.
- Panthers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Falcons last 6 vs. NFC South.
- Over is 14-2-1 in Falcons last 17 vs. NFC.
- Over is 13-3-1 in Falcons last 17 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 13-3 in Falcons last 16 games in Week 9.
- Over is 8-2 in Falcons last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 19-6-1 in Falcons last 26 games overall.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Falcons last 5 games on grass.
- Over is 9-3 in Falcons last 12 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Falcons last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 19-7 in Falcons last 26 games in November.
- Under is 8-3 in Falcons last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 54-25-4 in Falcons last 83 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in Panthers last 8 games in Week 9.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Panthers last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 7-2-1 in Panthers last 10 games on grass.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Panthers last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Panthers last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Panthers last 5 vs. NFC South.
- Over is 16-6-1 in Panthers last 23 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings.
- Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
- Under is 15-5-2 in the last 22 meetings in Carolina.
- Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
- Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Carolina.
