Philadelphia (9-7) at Chicago (12-4)
When: Sunday, January 6th, 2019
Where: Soldier Field,
Chicago, Illinois
Time: 4:40 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Chicago -5.5/42
The Chicago Bears played inspired football last week in Minnesota, even though they didn’t have to, and eliminated the rival Vikings handing the final NFC postseason spot to the Philadelphia Eagles. Doug Pederson and the Eagles will shake Bears’ players and coaches hands on Sunday, then set out to become the first repeat Super Bowl Champions since the 2003-04 New England Patriots. Back under center for Philadelphia is the man who guided the Eagles to their first ever Super Bowl title – Nick Foles. With Carson Wentz out once again with injury, its up to Foles to pull some magic against one of the best defenses in the league. The Bears dominated the NFC North this season with the No. 3-ranked defense overall in yards allowed per game (299.7) and tops in the league in points allowed (17.7). While the offense is no juggernaut, its is much better than when John Fox was coach between 2015-17. Second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky went from a 7/7 TD/INT ratio last season to 24/12 this year in helping Chicago to an NFL ninth-best 26.3 points a game. The Bears won their last four games overall, holding opponents to 17 points or less in each contest, while the Eagles rallied after a 4-6 start to win five of their final six. It’s the first meeting between these teams since Week 12 of the 2017 season when the Eagles won 31-3 at home behind three TD passes from Wentz, while the Bears had just 140 yards.
A nice side-story to this matchup will be the return to Chicago for the first time for former Bear’s wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, who enjoyed some big seasons in the Windy City with Jay Cutler. Jeffery enjoyed one of the best postseasons in Eagles’ history last winter, recording 219 receiving yards and three touchdowns in wins over Atlanta, Minnesota and New England. Pro Bowler Zach Ertz broke Jason Witten’s NFL record with 116 catches this season with a career-best 1,163 receiving yards. Pro Bowl DT Fletcher Cox leads an Eagles defense that ranked 30th against the pass, but seventh versus the run (96.9) and allowed 21.8 points a game.
Not only was the Bears’ defense No. 1 in points allowed, but they also led the way in yards per play (4.78), passing yards per play (5.29), takeaways (36) and interceptions (27). Getting Khalil Mack was huge, as he recorded 8.5 of his club-best 12.5 sacks and four forced fumbles in home games, helping the Bears to a 7-1 mark at Soldier Field this season. The running game also helped take pressure off Trubisky, with Jordan Howard leading the way with nine touchdowns – four in the last three games – including two Sunday’s 24-10 victory over the Vikings. Fellow back Tarik Cohen recorded 725 receiving and 444 rushing yards, and was one of five teammates to earn Pro Bowl honors this season.
Its so hard for opponents to generate any kind of offense versus this Bears defense, but Foles seems to come up big in these type of games. I still think the offense is holding back Chicago a bit and the Eagles defense will be able to keep this one close. I’m taking the points here.
Pick: Eagles +6.5
Betting Trends:
- Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
- Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
- Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff road games.
- Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Wildcard games.
- Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bears are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
- Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
- Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
- Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Bears are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.
- Bears are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
- Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff home games.
- Bears are 15-40-1 ATS in their last 56 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Eagles last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 Wildcard games.
- Over is 6-2 in Eagles last 8 playoff road games.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Eagles last 8 games in January.
- Over is 7-3 in Eagles last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 7-3 in Eagles last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 7-3 in Eagles last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 35-17 in Eagles last 52 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 vs. NFC.
- Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 6-2 in Bears last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 5-2 in Bears last 7 playoff games.
- Over is 10-4 in Bears last 14 games in January.
- Over is 5-2 in Bears last 7 playoff home games.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Underdog is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
