Arizona (60-45) at Chicago Cubs (56-48)
When: Tuesday, August 1st 2017
Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: FSN Arizona, CSN Chicago
Opening Odds: Chicago -180/OFF
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The Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs will begin a three-game series on Tuesday night in what could be a preview of a potential National League playoff series come October. The Cubs rejuvenated starting rotation has catapulted them to the top of the NL Central standings – 2.5 games clear of the fading Milwaukee Brewers, while the D’Backs own the top Wild Card slot. Chicago is 13-3 since the All-Star Break and the rotation has posted a 2.34 ERA and 11 quality starts during that stretch. Club ace Jon Lester hopes to continue that trend when he shoots for his fourth straight quality start opposite Arizona’s Patrick Corbin. Both teams made some moves ahead of Monday’s non-waiver trade deadline, with each adding bullpen help and veteran bench players. The Cubs picked up left-hander Justin Wilson and catcher Alex Avila from Detroit, while the Diamondbacks acquired Adam Rosales from Oakland to add depth to an injury-plagued infield. They also re-acquired right-hander David Hernandez from the Los Angeles Angels to bolster the pen. Arizona will be short another infielder on Tuesday as SS Ketel Marte was placed on the bereavement list Monday after his mother was killed in a car crash. Arizona OF J.D. Martinez, who came over from Detroit on July 18th, has hit safely in his last seven games against the Cubs and has five home runs as a member of the D’Backs.
Pitchers: Diamondbacks – Patrick Corbin (8-9, 4.36 ERA) | Cubs – Jon Lester (8-6, 3.88)
Corbin will make his team-leading 22nd start and is on pace for a career-high strike out total. He has 112 K’s in 119.2 innings, but has allowed 145 hits and 18 home runs. Corbin has won his last two starts and allowed two or fewer runs in his last four. He issued a season-high four walks and scattered seven hits Wednesday against Atlanta, but allowed just two runs over six innings. Corbin is 3-0 with a 3.15 ERA in four games (three starts) against the Cubs.
Lester has won all three of his starts since the All-Star Break while posting a 2.05 ERA. He held the crosstown-rival Chicago White Sox to two runs and four hits over seven innings Thursday, allowing both runs on solo homers for the second straight game. Lester is on pace to surpass his home run allowed total of 25 he set in 2012 with Boston. He is 2-0 with a 4.63 ERA in four starts against the Diamondbacks.
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One trend that sticks out to me is the fact that Arizona has lost seven straight games against teams with a winning record when Corbin starts. The D’Backs also struggle on the road and they’re going up against a Cubs team that appears to be back in World Series form.
Pick: Cubs -1.5+110
W/L TRENDS
| Arizona |
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss.
- Diamondbacks are 11-4 in their last 15 Tuesday games.
- Diamondbacks are 39-84 in their last 123 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 4-9 in their last 13 road games.
- Diamondbacks are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Diamondbacks are 3-14 in their last 17 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Diamondbacks are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Diamondbacks are 2-5 in Corbin’s last 7 starts vs. National League Central.
- Diamondbacks are 2-5 in Corbin’s last 7 starts.
- Diamondbacks are 2-5 in Corbin’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Diamondbacks are 5-16 in Corbin’s last 21 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 2-7 in Corbin’s last 9 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 2-9 in Corbin’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 1-5 in Corbin’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Diamondbacks are 2-12 in Corbin’s last 14 road starts.
- Diamondbacks are 1-6 in Corbin’s last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Diamondbacks are 0-7 in Corbin’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
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| Chi. Cubs |
- Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 13-3 in their last 16 overall.
- Cubs are 13-3 in their last 16 games on grass.
- Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 6-2 in their last 8 games following an off day.
- Cubs are 9-3 in their last 12 games following a win.
- Cubs are 20-7 in their last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Cubs are 19-7 in their last 26 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Cubs are 44-19 in their last 63 Tuesday games.
- Cubs are 2-5 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cubs are 3-10 in their last 13 vs. National League West.
- Cubs are 5-1 in Lester’s last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Cubs are 4-1 in Lester’s last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 8-2 in Lester’s last 10 Tuesday starts.
- Cubs are 11-3 in Lester’s last 14 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cubs are 22-6 in Lester’s last 28 home starts.
- Cubs are 7-2 in Lester’s last 9 starts vs. National League West.
- Cubs are 10-3 in Lester’s last 13 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 16-5 in Lester’s last 21 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Cubs are 5-2 in Lester’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Cubs are 39-17 in Lester’s last 56 starts.
- Cubs are 39-17 in Lester’s last 56 starts on grass.
- Cubs are 1-5 in Lester’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
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OU TRENDS
| Arizona |
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 on grass.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 games following a loss.
- Under is 16-5 in Diamondbacks last 21 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 21-7-1 in Diamondbacks last 29 games following an off day.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Diamondbacks last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-3-1 in Diamondbacks last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 20-8 in Diamondbacks last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-2 in Diamondbacks last 7 Tuesday games.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Diamondbacks last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 41-20-2 in Diamondbacks last 63 road games.
- Over is 6-1 in Corbin’s last 7 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 13-3 in Corbin’s last 16 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 8-2 in Corbin’s last 10 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 11-4 in Corbin’s last 15 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 8-3 in Corbin’s last 11 starts on grass.
- Over is 8-3 in Corbin’s last 11 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 8-3 in Corbin’s last 11 starts overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Corbin’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 34-15-2 in Corbin’s last 51 road starts.
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| Chi. Cubs |
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games following an off day.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 overall.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Cubs last 4 home games.
- Over is 6-1-2 in Cubs last 9 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Cubs last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Cubs last 6 games following a win.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Cubs last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Cubs last 5 Tuesday games.
- Under is 13-5-1 in Cubs last 19 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 36-15-3 in Cubs last 54 vs. National League West.
- Under is 9-4-1 in Cubs last 14 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Lester’s last 11 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Lester’s last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Lester’s last 5 starts vs. National League West.
- Under is 6-2 in Lester’s last 8 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-2 in Lester’s last 8 starts overall.
- Under is 19-7 in Lester’s last 26 home starts.
- Under is 18-7-1 in Lester’s last 26 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 18-7-1 in Lester’s last 26 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-2 in Lester’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.
- Diamondbacks are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings.
- Diamondbacks are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.
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