Indianapolis (9-6) at Tennessee (9-6)
When: Sunday, December 30th 2018
Where: Nissan Stadium,
Nashville, Tennessee
Time: 8:25 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Indianapolis -2.5/45
The Week 17 NFL schedule fell perfectly for NBC, as they will get a win-or-go-home matchup featuring the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans. The AFC South is probably the least popular division in all of football, but all eyes will be on Nissan Stadium Sunday night. The winner will clinch at least a wild card berth, while the loser will be done for the season. If Houston loses earlier in the day to Jacksonville, then the winner of this game will be crowned division champion and the Texans will be the wild card. In order for the Titans to gain a postseason berth, they’ll have to do something they’ve never done before in 10 tries – beat Andrew Luck. The Colts quarterback has owned Tennessee and the Colts are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 matchups with the Titans. Indy has won eight of their last nine overall and it included a 38-10 triumph over the Titans on November 18th. Tennessee has gotten themselves back in it with solid defense and a resurgence from running back Derick Henry. The Titans have won four straight while giving up an average of 11.8 points as they look to reach the playoffs for the second straight year.
Luck is having some comeback season with 36 touchdowns (2nd in the league) 4,308 yards (sixth), but could use some healthy receivers. Superstar wideout T.Y. Hilton is now listed as probable for Sunday despite an ankle injury. His other favorite target, tight end Eric Ebron, is in the concussion protocol and is questionable. Ebron ranks third in the NFL in receiving TDs with 12. Colts linebacker Darius Leonard leads the NFL with 155 tackles for a unit that ranks 11th overall and eighth against the run.
Quarterback Marcus Mariota remains a big question mark for Sunday, but did return to practice Thursday after being sidelined earlier in the week due to neck and foot injuries. He’s been playing hurt all season and its showing in his stats with just 11 touchdowns in 14 games and has thrown eight interceptions. Backup Blaine Gabbert has played in seven games this season (2 starts) and has a QB rating of just 80.8. Regardless of who starts, the Titans will continue to rely on Henry, who has 532 rushing yards and eight TDs during the four-game winning streak.
I think the Colts are the best team in the AFC South – even Houston – and you can’t ignore Luck’s perfect record against the Titans. The Tennessee defense has been good, but they haven’t played any good offenses. This is a very good Colts offense right now. I’m taking Luck in this one.
Pick: Colts -3
Betting Trends:
- Colts are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 17.
- Colts are 6-13-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win.
- Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC South.
- Titans are 11-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Titans are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 home games.
- Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
- Titans are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.
- Titans are 20-45-4 ATS in their last 69 vs. AFC.
- Titans are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Titans are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Colts last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Colts last 4 vs. AFC.
- Under is 5-0 in Colts last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-0 in Colts last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in Colts last 6 games overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Colts last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 9-2 in Colts last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games on grass.
- Under is 8-2 in Colts last 10 vs. AFC South.
- Under is 8-2 in Colts last 10 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 23-6 in Colts last 29 games in December.
- Under is 14-4 in Colts last 18 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 16-5 in Colts last 21 games in Week 17.
- Under is 8-3 in Colts last 11 road games.
- Under is 5-2 in Colts last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Titans last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games in Week 17.
- Under is 7-2 in Titans last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 6-2 in Titans last 8 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Titans last 8 vs. AFC South.
- Over is 5-2 in Titans last 7 games in December.
- Under is 7-3 in Titans last 10 vs. AFC.
- Over is 19-9-1 in Titans last 29 games following a ATS loss.
- Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Tennessee.
- Colts are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
- Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
