Thursday’s MLB Baseball Free Picks & Predictions [9/3/26]

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**All plays are Listed Pitchers and trends are courtesy of Don Best Sports and are through 9/1/26**


San Francisco (Tidwell) at Pittsburgh (Bachar) – 12:35 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Hot: Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Hot: Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Cold: Giants are 0-5 in Tidwell’s last 5 starts.
Cold: Giants are 0-5 in Tidwell’s last 5 starts on grass.
Cold: Giants are 0-4 in Tidwell’s last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.

Over/Under
Hot: Over is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 on grass.
Hot: Over is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 overall.
Hot: Over is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Hot: Under is 5-1 in Pirates last 6 vs. National League West.
Hot: Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 road games.
Hot: Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Head-to-Head
Hot: Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Pittsburgh.
Giants are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Pittsburgh.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Pick: Giants +145


Milwaukee (Henderson) at Chicago Cubs (Gausman) – 7:15 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 Thursday games.
Hot: Brewers are 7-1 in Henderson’s last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
Hot: Brewers are 7-1 in Henderson’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Cold: Cubs are 2-8 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Brewers are 2-6 in their last 8 during game 4 of a series.
Brewers are 4-10 in their last 14 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Over/Under
Hot: Over is 7-0 in Cubs last 7 vs. National League Central.
Hot: Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 Thursday games.
Hot: Over is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Hot: Over is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 on grass.
Hot: Over is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 overall.
Hot: Over is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 home games.

Head-to-Head
Hot: Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Hot: Brewers are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.

Pick: Brewers -110


St Louis (Mathews) at LA Dodgers (Skubal) – 10:10 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Cardinals are 8-2 in their last 10 during game 3 of a series.
Cardinals are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Dodgers are 55-19 in their last 74 Thursday games.
Cold: Dodgers are 1-7 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Dodgers are 2-5 in their last 7 games on grass.
Dodgers are 2-5 in their last 7 overall.

Over/Under
Hot: Under is 7-0 in Dodgers last 7 during game 3 of a series.
Hot: Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 road games.
Hot: Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Hot: Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Hot: Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Hot: Over is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

Head-to-Head
Hot: Cardinals are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Cardinals are 6-15 in the last 21 meetings in Los Angeles.

Pick: Cardinals +1.5 +105

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Toronto (Soriano) at Cleveland (Bibee) – 1:10 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Guardians are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Hot: Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Hot: Guardians are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Cold: Guardians are 1-7 in their last 8 vs. American League East.
Cold: Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
Cold: Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. American League Central.

Over/Under
Hot: Over is 4-0 in Soriano’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Hot: Under is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Hot: Under is 4-1-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. American League Central.
Hot: Under is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Hot: Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 Thursday games.
Hot: Over is 4-1 in Soriano’s last 5 starts overall.

Head-to-Head
Under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings in Cleveland.
Blue Jays are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in Cleveland.

Pick: Guardians -102


Chicago White Sox (Castillo) at Houston (Brown) – 2:10 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: White Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 4 of a series.
Hot: Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Hot: Astros are 7-1 in Brown’s last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Cold: Astros are 1-4 in Brown’s last 5 starts.
Cold: Astros are 1-4 in Brown’s last 5 starts on grass.
Cold: Astros are 1-4 in Brown’s last 5 home starts.

Over/Under
Hot: Under is 4-0-1 in Brown’s last 5 Thursday starts.
Hot: Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 during game 4 of a series.
Hot: Under is 4-0 in Brown’s last 4 starts on grass.
Hot: Under is 4-0 in Brown’s last 4 starts overall.
Hot: Under is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Hot: Under is 5-1 in Astros last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

Head-to-Head
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Houston.
White Sox are 8-21 in the last 29 meetings in Houston.
White Sox are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings.

Pick: Astros -1.5 +135


Boston (Bennett) at Baltimore (Young) – 7:15 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 Thursday games.
Hot: Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Hot: Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
Cold: Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 Thursday games.
Cold: Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
Orioles are 2-6 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Over/Under
Hot: Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 on grass.
Hot: Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 overall.
Hot: Under is 6-1-1 in Orioles last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Hot: Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Hot: Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 vs. American League East.
Hot: Over is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.

Head-to-Head
Hot: Red Sox are 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Baltimore.

Pick: Orioles +120

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Tampa Bay (McClanahan) at Texas (Quantrill) – 8:05 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Rays are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. American League West.
Hot: Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Hot: Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
Hot: Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
Hot: Rays are 12-3 in their last 15 games on grass.
Hot: Rays are 12-3 in their last 15 road games.

Over/Under
Hot: Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 road games.
Hot: Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 on grass.
Hot: Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Hot: Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 on grass.
Hot: Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 overall.
Hot: Under is 6-1 in Rangers last 7 vs. American League East.

Head-to-Head
Hot: Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Hot: Under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Texas.
Hot: Rays are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Cold: Rays are 0-9 in the last 9 meetings in Texas.

Pick: Rays -122


Athletics (Perkins) at Seattle (Anderson) – 9:40 ET

Win/Loss
Mariners are 13-5 in their last 18 vs. American League West.
Cold: A’s are 0-4 in their last 4 Thursday games.
Cold: Mariners are 1-5 in their last 6 overall.
Cold: Mariners are 2-8 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.
Cold: Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 Thursday games.
A’s are 6-23 in their last 29 road games.

Over/Under
Hot: Over is 4-0-1 in A’s last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Hot: Over is 3-0-1 in A’s last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Hot: Over is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 vs. American League West.
Hot: Over is 5-1 in Mariners last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Hot: Over is 9-2 in Mariners last 11 on grass.
Over is 7-2-1 in A’s last 10 during game 1 of a series.

Head-to-Head
A’s are 21-55 in the last 76 meetings.
A’s are 11-28 in the last 39 meetings in Seattle.

Pick: Mariners -1.5 +110


Miami (Alcantara) at Kansas City (Wacha) – 7:40 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Hot: Royals are 10-2 in their last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Hot: Royals are 10-2 in their last 12 games on grass.
Cold: Marlins are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Cold: Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague games.
Cold: Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.

Over/Under
Hot: Under is 5-0 in Alcantara’s last 5 interleague starts.
Hot: Over is 4-0 in Royals last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Hot: Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Hot: Under is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 vs. American League Central.
Hot: Over is 4-0 in Alcantara’s last 4 Thursday starts.
Hot: Over is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Head-to-Head
Hot: Under is 6-0-2 in the last 8 meetings in Kansas City.
Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
Marlins are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.

Pick: Marlins -112