Kansas City (5-0) at New England (3-2)
When: Sunday, October 14th 2018
Where: Gillette Stadium,
Foxborough, Massachusetts
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: New England -3/57.5
The Kansas City Chiefs’s perfect record is on the line Sunday night when they visit Tom Brady and the New England Patriots for a key AFC battle that could determine who gets homefield advantage in the postseason. The Patriots were the preseason favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but Kansas City has closed the gap considerably and might overtake them on the odds board with a win in Foxborough. The Chiefs spoiled the Patriots home opener last year on the Thursday night kickoff game behind quarterback Alex Smith and running back Kareem Hunt. Gone is Smith, but Bill Belichick and company have to contend with Patrick Mahomes, who threw for 313 yards and ran for a score in Kansas City’s 30-14 win over Jacksonville last week. The Chiefs’ defense did allow 502 yards but also forced five turnovers including an interception returned for a touchdown by Chris Jones. The Patriots are on extra rest as they beat the visiting Colts 38-24 last Thursday night as Brady threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns to become the third player with 500 career TD throws. It was Brady’s 226th career win, tying him with Colts kicker and former Patriot Adam Vinatieri for the most in league history. Kansas City has won two of the past three meetings (loss was in playoffs following 2015 season) and both victories were by at least two touchdowns. K.C. and New England have split the past 10 meetings against the spread.
Mahomes failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time and tossed his first two interceptions of the season in last week’s win over Jacksonville. Tight end Travis Kelce has a team-high 28 catches and three touchdowns while big-play threat Tyreek Hill is next with 27 receptions and three scores. Hunt has shrugged off a slow start with four rushing touchdowns in the last three games and ran for 148 yards and a score in last year’s meeting with the Patriots. Kansas City forced five turnovers and had five sacks last week, but it allows an NFL-worst 461.8 yards per game.
The New England offense is starting to hit its stride with 38 points in wins over Miami and Indianapolis the last two weeks to push their record back over the .500 mark (3-2). Brady got one of his trusted targets back last week as Julian Edelman (seven catches, 57 yards) returned from a four-game suspension and recent acquisition Josh Gordon made his Patriots debut with two receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown. The running game got a lift also from rookie Sony Michel, who has scored in each of the past two games while rushing for 210 yards. New England’s defense is middle of the pack against the run and pass, but needs to get more pressure on the quarterback (7.0 sacks).
This is the time of year that New England starts turning it on and the last two weeks should be a good indication of that. This is also a big revenge game from the embarrassment they suffered at the hands of Kansas City last year. Look for Brady and company to roll in this one.
Pick: Patriots -3.5
Betting Trends:
- Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
- Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
- Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Chiefs are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win.
- Chiefs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win.
- Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
- Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games on fieldturf.
- Patriots are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.
- Patriots are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 16-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Patriots are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 36-14-2 ATS in their last 52 games in October.
- Patriots are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 home games.
- Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 games following a straight up win.
- Patriots are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 vs. AFC.
- Patriots are 39-19-2 ATS in their last 60 games overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 games in Week 6.
- Under is 6-0 in Chiefs last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games in Week 6.
- Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games in October.
- Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 6-2 in Patriots last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Patriots last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 49-23 in Patriots last 72 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
