St Louis (47-50) at Chicago Cubs (50-46)
When: Sunday, July 23rd 2017
Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Chicago -180
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The Chicago Cubs will look for another series win when they take on the St. Louis Cardinals in the rubber-match of their weekend set on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. Newly acquired LHP Jose Quintana will get his second start for the Cubs and fans will be looking for more of the same stuff he displayed in his debut with the team. Quintana was dominant last Sunday, racking up 12 strikeouts over seven scoreless innings to win at Baltimore and will get his first start at home. The Cubs evened the series with a 3-2 win Saturday, scoring three runs in the bottom of the eighth after the Cardinals had broken a scoreless tie with back-to-back solo home runs from Paul DeJong and Randal Grichuk in the top of the inning. Grichuk has homered in each of the first two games of the series and is 10-for-26 with two doubles and four home runs against the Cubs this season. Chicago has won seven of eight since the All-Star break to get within one game of NL Central leader Milwaukee, while St. Louis is 4.5 games behind the Brewers. Chicago’s Javier Baez is 11-for-20 with two home runs during a five-game hitting streak. Michael Wacha will take the mound for the Cardinals and he’ll be looking to tame the bat of Anthony Rizzo, who is 15-for-31 with three home runs against Wacha.
Pitchers: Cardinals – Michael Wacha (7-3, 3.71 ERA) | Cubs – Jose Quintana (5-8, 4.20)
Wacha has won four straight starts and five consecutive decisions after throwing a three-hit shutout against the New York Mets on Tuesday. He needed a season-high 119 pitches to do so. Wacha has been dominant during his four-start winning streak, posting a 1.01 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 26.2 innings. He is 4-4 with a 6.35 ERA in 13 games (11 starts) against the Cubs.
Quintana, who will make his first start as a Cub at Wrigley Field, is 0-1 with a 2.51 ERA in two previous outings there. He has posted three scoreless outings in his last five starts and has won his last three decisions. Quintana has won both of his previous starts against the Cardinals, in 2012 and 2015, while allowing two runs over 11.1 innings.
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Wacha has not been very good against the Cubs, but he’s one of the hottest pitchers going right now. I expect Quintana to have some jitters in his first home start, so I’m not willing to lay that much money on him. I’ll take the underdog in this one as the Cardinals look to finish a long road trip with a series win.
Pick: Cardinals +150
W/L TRENDS
| St. Louis |
- Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss.
- Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 7-20 in their last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Cardinals are 7-20 in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Cardinals are 5-15 in their last 20 vs. National League Central.
- Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Cardinals are 4-0 in Wacha’s last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Cardinals are 5-0 in Wacha’s last 5 starts.
- Cardinals are 5-0 in Wacha’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Cardinals are 19-7 in Wacha’s last 26 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 21-9 in Wacha’s last 30 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 9-4 in Wacha’s last 13 starts vs. National League Central.
- Cardinals are 4-9 in Wacha’s last 13 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cardinals are 2-5 in Wacha’s last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Cardinals are 1-4 in Wacha’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
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| Chi. Cubs |
- Cubs are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Cubs are 7-1 in their last 8 overall.
- Cubs are 7-1 in their last 8 games on grass.
- Cubs are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a win.
- Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 Sunday games.
- Cubs are 13-6 in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cubs are 2-6 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
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OU TRENDS
| St. Louis |
- Over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Cardinals last 11 overall.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Cardinals last 11 on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Cardinals last 6 games following a loss.
- Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Cardinals last 9 road games.
- Over is 9-3 in Cardinals last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 20-7-1 in Cardinals last 28 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 35-14-4 in Cardinals last 53 Sunday games.
- Under is 10-4 in Cardinals last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Cardinals last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-0 in Wacha’s last 6 Sunday starts.
- Over is 8-1 in Wacha’s last 9 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 21-5-1 in Wacha’s last 27 road starts.
- Over is 15-4-2 in Wacha’s last 21 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 22-6-1 in Wacha’s last 29 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 25-7-1 in Wacha’s last 33 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 21-6 in Wacha’s last 27 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 10-3 in Wacha’s last 13 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 10-4-1 in Wacha’s last 15 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 35-15-1 in Wacha’s last 51 starts on grass.
- Over is 35-15-1 in Wacha’s last 51 starts overall.
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| Chi. Cubs |
- Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 Sunday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 6-2 in Cubs last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 16-6 in Cubs last 22 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 8-3 in Cubs last 11 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 12-5 in Cubs last 17 games following a win.
- Under is 7-3 in Cubs last 10 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 16-7 in Cubs last 23 games vs. a right-handed starter.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Over is 5-0 in Wacha’s last 5 road starts vs. Cubs.
- Over is 11-1 in Wacha’s last 12 starts vs. Cubs.
- Under is 11-5-1 in the last 17 meetings.
- Cardinals are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.
- Cardinals are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.
- Cardinals are 1-5 in Wacha’s last 6 starts vs. Cubs.
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