St Louis (52-53) at Milwaukee (55-52)
When: Tuesday, August 1st 2017
Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI
Time: 7:40 ET | TV: FSN Midwest, FSN Wisconsin
Opening Odds: St Louis -114/8.5
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Two NL Central teams going in opposite directions will meet Tuesday night to begin a pivotal three-game series as the Milwaukee Brewers host the St. Louis Cardinals at Miller Park. The Brewers were in first place most of the first half, but have now lost 11 of their last 14 to relinquish their spot atop the Central to the Chicago Cubs in addition to setting a franchise record by going hitless in their last 31 at-bats with runners in scoring position. Milwaukee dropped two of three over the weekend to the Cubs and have scored just seven runs over the last four games. Travis Shaw is doing all he can, with three homers, five RBIs and five runs scored over his last eight games and is 3-for-6 with a homer and three RBIs in his career versus Tuesday starter Carlos Martinez. While the Brewers have dropped to 2.5 games behind Chicago, the Cardinals (52-53) have climbed to within 4.5 of the Cubs with wins in five of their last seven and are one victory shy of getting back to .500. Jose Martinez recorded a career-high three RBIs in Sunday’s 3-2 win over Arizona and has gone deep twice with six RBIs against Milwaukee this season. St. Louis just concluded a 7-2 homestand and will now hit the road for the next eight. The offense may get a boost on Tuesday as Stephen Piscotty, who has been sidelined with a groin injury, completed a short rehab stint with Single-A Peoria.
Pitchers: Cardinals – Carlos Martinez (7-8, 3.52 ERA) | Brewers – Jimmy Nelson (8-5, 3.38)
Martinez will look to rebound from a poor outing despite earning the victory last time out. He allowed five runs on Wednesday, but struck out eight in a 10-5 victory over Colorado. Martinez has been very good against Milwaukee, going 5-2 mark with a 1.75 ERA in 21 career appearances. Martinez is 1-1 versus the Brewers this season after allowing five runs in as many innings in a 7-5 loss on April 20th and surrendering one unearned run on four hits in 7.1 innings of a 2-1 victory two weeks later.
Jimmy Nelson is winless in his last three outings after a three-game winning streak prior. He received a tough no-decision after allowing two runs on four hits and striking out 10 in seven innings at Washington on Wednesday. Nelson owns an 0-8 mark with a 7.01 ERA in 11 career games against St. Louis, including a six-walk performance in a 6-4 loss on April 23rd.
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This pick is a no-brainer or me. Just look at which direction the teams and tonight’s pitchers are going and that’s all you need to know. The Cardinals are hot – the Brewers are not. Martinez owns the Brewers – the Cardinals own Nelson. Need I say more?
Pick: Cardinals +110
W/L TRENDS
| St. Louis |
- Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 overall.
- Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 games on grass.
- Cardinals are 4-9 in their last 13 games following a win.
- Cardinals are 8-20 in their last 28 vs. National League Central.
- Cardinals are 8-22 in their last 30 games following an off day.
- Cardinals are 7-21 in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
- Cardinals are 7-1 in Martinez’s last 8 Tuesday starts.
- Cardinals are 21-9 in Martinez’s last 30 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Cardinals are 2-5 in Martinez’s last 7 starts.
- Cardinals are 2-5 in Martinez’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Cardinals are 3-8 in Martinez’s last 11 road starts.
- Cardinals are 1-4 in Martinez’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Cardinals are 1-4 in Martinez’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
|
| Milwaukee |
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 7-2 in their last 9 during game 1 of a series.
- Brewers are 10-4 in their last 14 home games.
- Brewers are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a loss.
- Brewers are 2-6 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
- Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Brewers are 2-10 in their last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Brewers are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Brewers are 1-7 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 4-0 in Nelson’s last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 4-0 in Nelson’s last 4 home starts.
- Brewers are 4-1 in Nelson’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Brewers are 6-2 in Nelson’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 7-3 in Nelson’s last 10 starts.
- Brewers are 7-3 in Nelson’s last 10 starts on grass.
- Brewers are 1-4 in Nelson’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 0-4 in Nelson’s last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
|
OU TRENDS
| St. Louis |
- Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games following an off day.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 on grass.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 Tuesday games.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Cardinals last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 7-2-1 in Cardinals last 10 games following a win.
- Under is 6-2-2 in Cardinals last 10 road games.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Cardinals last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Cardinals last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 9-3-1 in Cardinals last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 5-2-2 in Cardinals last 9 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Martinez’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Martinez’s last 6 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-1 in Martinez’s last 6 starts overall.
- Under is 12-4-3 in Martinez’s last 19 starts vs. National League Central.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Martinez’s last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Martinez’s last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.
|
| Milwaukee |
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 home games.
- Under is 7-0 in Brewers last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 8-1 in Brewers last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 12-3 in Brewers last 15 overall.
- Under is 12-3 in Brewers last 15 on grass.
- Under is 16-5 in Brewers last 21 games following a loss.
- Under is 20-7-1 in Brewers last 28 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 19-7-1 in Brewers last 27 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Nelson’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Nelson’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Nelson’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 12-3-1 in Nelson’s last 16 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Nelson’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Nelson’s last 5 starts overall.
- Under is 15-5-3 in Nelson’s last 23 home starts.
- Under is 7-3 in Nelson’s last 10 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 9-4 in Nelson’s last 13 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Over is 5-1 in Nelson’s last 6 home starts vs. Cardinals.
- Cardinals are 5-1 in Martinez’s last 6 starts vs. Brewers.
- Cardinals are 5-1 in Martinez’s last 6 road starts vs. Brewers.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Cardinals are 39-15 in the last 54 meetings in Milwaukee.
- Under is 5-2-2 in Martinez’s last 9 starts vs. Brewers.
- Over is 7-3 in Nelson’s last 10 starts vs. Cardinals.
- Brewers are 3-7 in Nelson’s last 10 starts vs. Cardinals.
- Cardinals are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.
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