California vs Texas Spread and Free Pick – 2011 Holiday Bowl

California (7-5) vs Texas (7-5)
When: Wednesday, December 28th, 2011
Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
Time: 8:00 ET

The point spread for this year’s Holiday Bowl between the California Golden Bears and Texas Longhorns opened up at -3 in favor of the Longhorns at Bovada Sportsbook on 12/12/11. As of Sunday night (12/18), the line has not moved. Bovada hasn’t released a total, but most books have it set at 70. Right now, 61% of the betting public is on Texas and 62% are on the under. To help you better decide who to bet, take a look at these trends for tonight.

Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.

Golden Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12.

Longhorns are 7-18-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Longhorns are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 bowl games.

Under is 5-1 in Golden Bears last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.

Under is 7-2 in Golden Bears last 9 games overall.

Under is 3-0-1 in Longhorns last 4 games following a S.U. loss.

Over is 4-0 in Longhorns last 4 vs. Pac-12.

My Prediction: My first thought when this line came out was to jump on Texas, but after looking further into it, I’m going to take Cal. The Longhorns have real problems at quarterback and played pretty poorly down the stretch as a team. Meanwhile, the Bears ended the season pretty strong. They won 4 of their last 6 and covered the spread in 5 of those. Texas also has injury problems at running back even though Malcolm Brown (707 yards) and Joe Bergeron (454 yards) should play. Take the points in this one.

California +3

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