Buffalo (9-1) at Ohio (6-4)
When: Wednesday, November 14th 2018
Where: Peden Stadium,
Athens, Ohio
Time: 7:00 ET | TV: ESPN2
Opening Odds: Ohio -1/63
The Buffalo Bulls have been rolling through the Mid-American Conference this season with a perfect 6-0 record SU and ATS, and are on a collision course with Northern Illinois for the conference title game in a few weeks. While the Huskies have already clinched a date in Detroit, the Bulls still need to win one more and can do that on Wednesday night when they visit a very talented and well-coached Ohio Bobcats team. Frank Solich’s still has a glimmer of hope to win the East, but must win out and hope for a few more things to happen. Still, a win over Buffalo would give them confidence heading into their ninth Bowl game in 10 seasons. Ohio was picked by most as the preseason favorite in the MAC but close losses at Northern Illinois (24-21) and Miami (Ohio) (30-28) have derailed their hopes of a trip to Detroit in late November. The Bobcats also fell in non-conference matchups against Virginia (45-31) and Cincinnati (34-30), while Buffalo has beaten Temple and Rutgers. With just one more win this season, Buffalo will earn double-digit wins for the first time in its program history. The hiring of head coach Lance Leipold is a big reason why the program has emerged as one of the top Group of 5 teams in the nation this fall. Leipold went 109-6 at Wisconsin-Whitewater from 2007-14 before taking over in Buffalo. After a 7-17 mark through his first two years with the Bulls, Buffalo has gone 15-7 over their last 22 games. A high-powered offense is led by quarterback Tyree Jackson and receiver Anthony Johnson, guiding the Bulls to 36.2 points a game. Ohio leads the all-time series 14-10, but Buffalo has won two of the last three meetings in this series but haven’t claimed a victory in Athens since 2008.
The Bulls are averaging 5.9 yards per play this season and can hurt opponents via the ground or through big plays in the passing game. Freshman running backs Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks have helped Buffalo average 191.5 yards a game on the ground – 49th best in the nation. Buffalo also ranks second in the MAC in plays of 40 yards or more (15). Jackson’s top target is senior Anthony Johnson, who despite being limited due to injury earlier this year, has caught 35 passes for 699 yards (19.98 ypc) and nine touchdowns. Patterson has 763 yards and 10 rushing scores, while Marks has added 616 yards and eight touchdowns on just 123 attempts. Center James O’Hagan anchors an offensive line that has allowed only eight sacks through 10 games this season. The Bulls rank 11th in the country in passing defense, allowing just 174.3 yards a game through the air.
Ohio’s defense will be tasked with slowing down Jackson and company and have not allowed more than 30 points in a MAC contest this year but ranks 10th in the league by giving up 6.2 yards a play and sixth in points allowed (27.5 ppg). The Bobcats are giving up just 20.3 points and hold offenses to 5.4 yards per play in MAC games. Ohio ranks second in the conference versus the run but ranks near the bottom in third down and red zone defense. The Bobcats rank ninth in the MAC in pass efficiency defense, and starting corner Jalen Fox has missed the last six games due to injury. Offensively, the Bobcats are No. 1 in the MAC in scoring at 39.3 points a game and average 6.9 yards per play. Ohio’s offense has the ability to control the game through the air or on the ground as well. Running back A.J. Ouellette has rushed for 777 yards and eight scores, followed by quarterback Nathan Rourke with 653 yards and eight touchdowns.
This should be a terrific game here and I want to take the over, but the total is just a little too high (66.5). Buffalo seems to be the cream of the MAC this season, and they’re getting points? Yes, Ohio is a solid team, but the defensive edge has to go to the Bulls here. Look for Buffalo to escape with a hard-fought win.
Pick: Buffalo +2.5
Betting Trends:
- Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
- Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
- Bulls are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
- Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bulls are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
- Bulls are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games overall.
- Bulls are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games on fieldturf.
- Bulls are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Bulls are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
- Bobcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
- Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Bobcats are 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bobcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Bobcats are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games.
- Bobcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Bulls last 4 games in November.
- Under is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 road games.
- Over is 8-2-1 in Bulls last 11 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Bulls last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 7-2 in Bulls last 9 games overall.
- Over is 6-2 in Bulls last 8 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 6-2 in Bulls last 8 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Bulls last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Bulls last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Bulls last 9 conference games.
- Over is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Bobcats last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Bobcats last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Bobcats last 6 games overall.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Bobcats last 6 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Bobcats last 9 games in November.
- Under is 5-2 in Bobcats last 7 Wednesday games.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Bobcats last 8 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 14-6-1 in Bobcats last 21 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Bobcats last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 34-16-3 in Bobcats last 53 conference games.
- Under is 35-17-3 in Bobcats last 55 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
- Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Ohio.
