Cleveland (2-2) at San Francisco (3-0)
When: Monday, October 7th, 2019
Where: Levi’s Stadium,
Santa Clara, CA
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: San Francisco -4.5/46.5
An NFL team is allowed a maximum of five prime-time games in one season and the Cleveland Browns, of all teams, will be playing their third such game and have two more later this season. The Browns will play their second consecutive road game when they visit Levi’s Stadium for the first time to play the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers. Cleveland has already won both of their road contests, including an impressive 40-25 win at rival Baltimore last week and are vying for their first 3-0 start away from home since 1994. San Francisco is one of just three teams (New England and Kansas City) that have to lose entering Sunday’s action and will host the Browns in a MNF contest for the first time ever. The Niners should be well rested after coming off their bye week and were lucky to escape with a 24-20 victory over Pittsburgh last time out. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was responsible for three (two interceptions, one fumble) of the team’s five turnovers. This is the first meeting between these teams since the 49ers allowed 481 yards of offense in a 24-10 setback in 2015. The total has gone under in each of the last four meetings.
Cleveland has been getting a lot of pressure on the quarterback with defensive end Myles Garrett recording seven sacks in his past five games, but San Francisco has yielded just two sacks this season. The unit ranks eighth against the pass despite top cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams missing the last game. Both are questionable for Monday. Baker Mayfield threw for 342 yards and a touchdown, while Nick Chubb rushed for 165 yards and three scores, including an 88-yarder against one of the NFL’s top rushing defenses in Baltimore last week. Jarvis Landry was Mayfield’s top target with eight catches and a career-high 167 yards but left with a possible concussion and is listed as questionable. The Browns will get receiver Antonio Callaway back off a four-game suspension to help out. Callaway scored five touchdowns during his rookie campaign, with three coming in the final six games.
San Francisco’s defense ranks third overall and fifth against the run and have yet to allow a touchdown on the ground this season or more than 20 points in the first three games. That unit has lost cornerback Akhello Witherspoon for at least a month due to a right foot strain, however. The offense has been a bit inconsistent behind quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who is completing 60 percent of his passes for 739 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions. Running back Tevin Coleman has missed the past two games with an ankle injury but could return Monday. Tight end George Kittle leads the team in both catches (17) and receiving yards (165), but has yet to find the end zone. Raheem Mostert and Matt Breida combined to rush for 147 yards on 26 carries against the Steelers.
I’m not sold on this San Francisco team yet. They’ve played three teams who probably won’t make the playoffs and this will be their toughest test to date. Cleveland has played well on the road and the defense will force Garoppolo into more mistakes. The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in their past six after a bye week.
Pick: Browns +5 (More Week 5 Free Picks)
Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Browns are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Browns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Browns are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Browns are 12-28-1 ATS in their last 41 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Browns are 7-18-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Browns are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games in October.
Browns are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Browns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
49ers are 26-7 ATS in their last 33 Monday games.
49ers are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games.
49ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
49ers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
49ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week.
Under is 4-0 in Browns last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Under is 3-0-1 in Browns last 4 games following a ATS win.
Over is 5-1 in Browns last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 5-1 in Browns last 6 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1-1 in Browns last 6 games on grass.
Under is 4-1 in Browns last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Under is 3-1-1 in Browns last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Browns last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 games in Week 5.
Over is 6-1 in 49ers last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 7-2 in 49ers last 9 games following a straight up win.
Over is 15-5 in 49ers last 20 games following a bye week.
Under is 8-3 in 49ers last 11 games on grass.
Over is 5-2 in 49ers last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in 49ers last 7 home games.
Under is 5-2 in 49ers last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
