Milwaukee (46-42) at Pittsburgh (42-44)
When: Friday, July 5th, 2019
Where: PNC Park,
Pittsburgh, PA
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: FS Wisconsin,
AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh
Opening Odds: Milwaukee -125/9.5
The already tight National League Central got even tighter on Thursday, with the last place Cincinnati Reds pulling to within 3.5 games of first place Milwaukee and the Chicago Cubs. The Brewers will now head to Pittsburgh to begin a three-game series with the Pirates, who are just three games out themselves heading into the final weekend of the first half. The Brewers mustered just two hits in Thursday’s 1-0 loss to Luis Castillo and the Reds and have failed to score in 23 consecutive innings. Christian Yelich (MLB-best 31 HR) is batting .324 with two homers and seven RBI in 37 at-bats against Pittsburgh this season and is 4-for-9 with a homer in his career against scheduled starter Steven Brault. The Pirates won the first three this week from the Cubs before dropping the finale 11-3 on Thursday. All-Star first baseman – and HR Derby participant – Josh Bell had four homers and 11 RBI during the series to raise his major league-leading total to 81. Pittsburgh outfielder Starling Marte, who is 10-for-23 all-time versus Friday start Zach Davies, is 10-for-21 during a five-game hitting streak.
Pitchers: Brewers – Zach Davies (7-2, 3.24 ERA) | Pirates – Steven Brault (3-1, 4.29)
The Brewers had lost three in a row that Davies started until that was snapped last week with a 2-1 over the Pirates in which the righty tossed 5.1 innings of one-run ball, but struck out just two batters. Davies and the Brewers have actually beaten Pittsburgh three times this month and he has an overall mark against the Pirates of 4-5 with a 5.08 ERA.
10 CENT MLB LINES & 1% CASH BACK
Brault was on the other end of that 2-1 win by Davies and the Brewers last Sunday and he lasted just 4.2 innings while allowing one run and five hits in the no-decision. Brault ended the month of June with a 1-0 mark and 2.42 ERA in five starts. He has a 2.45 ERA in two starts against Milwaukee this season and is 1-2 with a 3.83 ERA in 13 career appearances (seven starts) overall.
I know Milwaukee has dominated the season series thus far, but they’ve gone 23 straight innings without scoring a run. Pittsburgh is on a roll and has some confidence after taking three of four from the Cubbies. Davies has not been good over the last month and I think the Pirates can get to him early.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Friday. He is 87-61 +1628 units on the season!
Pick: Pirates +103
10 CENT MLB LINES & 1% CASH BACK
BETTING TRENDS:
Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Brewers are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a loss.
Brewers are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Brewers are 1-6 in their last 7 road games.
Brewers are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Brewers are 1-6 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
Brewers are 1-6 in their last 7 Friday games.
Brewers are 1-10 in their last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Brewers are 4-0 in Davies’ last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Brewers are 8-2 in Davies’ last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Brewers are 6-2 in Davies’ last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Brewers are 8-3 in Davies’ last 11 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Brewers are 5-2 in Davies’ last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Brewers are 5-2 in Davies’ last 7 Friday starts.
Brewers are 2-5 in Davies’ last 7 road starts.
Brewers are 2-5 in Davies’ last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Pirates are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Pirates are 7-1 in their last 8 home games.
Pirates are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Pirates are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Pirates are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss.
Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 Friday games.
Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Pirates are 8-3 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Pirates are 5-2 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Pirates are 10-4 in their last 14 overall.
Pirates are 10-4 in their last 14 games on grass.
Pirates are 5-11 in their last 16 during game 1 of a series.
Pirates are 5-1 in Brault’s last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Pirates are 7-2 in Brault’s last 9 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Pirates are 6-2 in Brault’s last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.
Pirates are 6-2 in Brault’s last 8 home starts.
Pirates are 8-3 in Brault’s last 11 starts vs. National League Central.
Pirates are 5-2 in Brault’s last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Pirates are 2-5 in Brault’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 games following a loss.
Under is 8-1 in Brewers last 9 overall.
Under is 8-1 in Brewers last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 8-1 in Brewers last 9 on grass.
Under is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 vs. National League Central.
Over is 5-1-1 in Brewers last 7 Friday games.
Under is 5-1-1 in Brewers last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 16-5-1 in Brewers last 22 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 14-5-2 in Brewers last 21 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 5-2-1 in Brewers last 8 road games.
Over is 16-7-1 in Brewers last 24 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 6-0-1 in Davies’ last 7 Friday starts.
Under is 20-6 in Davies’ last 26 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 20-6-1 in Davies’ last 27 starts on grass.
Under is 9-3-3 in Davies’ last 15 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 6-2-1 in Davies’ last 9 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 6-2-1 in Davies’ last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 15-5-1 in Davies’ last 21 road starts.
Under is 19-7-1 in Davies’ last 27 starts vs. National League Central.
Under is 18-7-2 in Davies’ last 27 starts with 4 days of rest.
Under is 5-2 in Davies’ last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 35-17-3 in Davies’ last 55 starts overall.
Over is 20-5-2 in Pirates last 27 home games.
Over is 8-2-1 in Pirates last 11 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 18-6-2 in Pirates last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 3-1-1 in Pirates last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Over is 11-4 in Pirates last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 19-7-1 in Pirates last 27 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 19-7 in Pirates last 26 games following a loss.
Over is 8-3 in Pirates last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 18-7-2 in Pirates last 27 Friday games.
Over is 18-7-1 in Pirates last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 10-4-2 in Pirates last 16 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 39-17-3 in Pirates last 59 overall.
Over is 39-17-3 in Pirates last 59 on grass.
Over is 4-0-1 in Brault’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Over is 3-0-1 in Brault’s last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-0-1 in Brault’s last 5 home starts.
Over is 3-1-1 in Brault’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-1 in Brault’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 5-2-2 in Brault’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-3-2 in Brault’s last 12 starts on grass.
Over is 7-3-2 in Brault’s last 12 starts overall.
Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
Under is 3-0-1 in Davies’ last 4 road starts vs. Pirates.
Under is 7-0 in Davies’ last 7 starts vs. Pirates.
Brewers are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh.
Brewers are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh.
Under is 3-1-1 in Brault’s last 5 starts vs. Brewers.
