Milwaukee (57-55) at Chicago Cubs (59-51)
When: Sunday, August 4th, 2019
Where: Wrigley Field,
Chicago, Illinois
Time: 2:20 ET | TV: TBS
Opening Odds: Chicago -145
Only the Los Angeles Dodgers have a better home record than Chicago in the National League this season and the Cubs will look to complete a three-game sweep of NL Central-rival Milwaukee on Sunday afternoon. The Cubs were one of my top plays on Friday and Saturday, and I will give it away here – I’m taking them again. Cole Hamels came back from the injured list to give Chicago five shutout innings in Saturday’s 4-1 victory to move the Cubs into a tie with St. Louis for first pending the Cardinals’ game in Oakland on Saturday night, while also improving their record at Wrigley Field to 38-18. The loss dropped Milwaukee to 1-4 on their current nine-game road trip and have failed to score more than four runs in that span. Albert Amora Jr. carried the Cubs’ offense by going 3-for-3 with a solo homer and a sacrifice fly, but All-Star catcher Willson Contreras had to leave the game with a hamstring injury and will have an MRI on Monday. Brewers’ rookie sensation Keston Hiura is mired in a 3-for-22 slump after going hitless in four at-bats Saturday as Milwaukee managed just one extra-base hit among their eight. The Cubs now have a 6-5 edge in the season series after winning the last three.
Pitchers: Brewers – Adrian Houser (4-4, 3.99 ERA) | Cubs – Yu Darvish (3-5, 4.46)
Don’t look for Adrian Houser to go deep into this game as he’s only pitched past the fifth inning once in his seven starts. He was pulled after 69 pitches on Tuesday despite allowing one run and three hits over five innings of work against Oakland in the 3-2 loss. Houser came out of the bullpen four days earlier and earned the win over the Cubs with 1.2 scoreless innings and will start against them for the first time.
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Yu Darvish went a long time without winning a game at Wrigley Field until six shutout innings against the Pirates on July 12th and followed that up with six more scoreless frames in a win at home over Cincinnati. His last two starts have been on the road and the Cubs have lost both games after Darvish allowed six runs over 12 combined innings. He will be seeing Milwaukee for the first time this season after allowing one earned run in 12 innings over two starts against them in 2018.
The Cubs are getting great pitching and timely hitting right now and have built up a bunch of momentum while the Brewers are falling further back in the standings. I expect a clean-sweep here behind Darvish.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Sunday. He is 101-73 +1628 units on the season!
Pick: Cubs -140
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BETTING TRENDS:
Brewers are 8-3 in their last 11 Sunday games.
Brewers are 13-6 in their last 19 during game 3 of a series.
Brewers are 35-17 in their last 52 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.
Brewers are 5-12 in their last 17 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Brewers are 5-12 in their last 17 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Brewers are 4-10 in their last 14 vs. National League Central.
Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Brewers are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 overall.
Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 games on grass.
Brewers are 1-4 in Houser’s last 5 starts.
Brewers are 1-4 in Houser’s last 5 starts on grass.
Brewers are 0-4 in Houser’s last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Cubs are 21-7 in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Cubs are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Cubs are 49-21 in their last 70 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Cubs are 71-32 in their last 103 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Cubs are 35-16 in their last 51 home games.
Cubs are 2-5 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win.
Cubs are 2-5 in Darvish’s last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cubs are 2-5 in Darvish’s last 7 starts.
Cubs are 2-5 in Darvish’s last 7 starts on grass.
Cubs are 1-4 in Darvish’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Milwaukee
Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 overall.
Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 road games.
Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 on grass.
Over is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 Sunday games.
Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 games following a loss.
Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 vs. National League Central.
Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 36-15 in Brewers last 51 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 22-10-1 in Brewers last 33 during game 3 of a series.
Over is 19-9-1 in Brewers last 29 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 7-0 in Cubs last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 10-1 in Cubs last 11 vs. National League Central.
Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 13-3 in Cubs last 16 home games.
Under is 4-1-1 in Cubs last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 12-3-1 in Cubs last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Under is 20-7-1 in Cubs last 28 games following a win.
Under is 24-9-1 in Cubs last 34 overall.
Under is 24-9-1 in Cubs last 34 on grass.
Under is 20-8 in Cubs last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0 in Darvish’s last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
Under is 3-0-1 in Darvish’s last 4 home starts.
Over is 6-1-1 in Darvish’s last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Under is 4-1 in Darvish’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Darvish’s last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
Under is 7-2 in Darvish’s last 9 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 6-2-1 in Darvish’s last 9 starts on grass.
Under is 6-2-1 in Darvish’s last 9 starts overall.
Under is 7-3 in Darvish’s last 10 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 32-9 in the last 41 meetings.
Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Chicago.
Brewers are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings.
Brewers are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Chicago.
