Braves vs. Mets Preview and Pick

Division rivals clash when the Atlanta Braves travel north to take on the New York Mets Monday in the first of three at Shea Stadium.

Atlanta just took two of three from San Diego, although the bullpen blew a chance for a sweep by giving up four runs in the last three innings of a 4-3 Braves loss Sunday.

New York just took two of three from Milwaukee, and is off to the best start in franchise history, winning all four of its series so far.

The Mets are in first place in the National League East, four games up on the second-place Braves.

Atlanta is 3-4 on the road this season, 3-3 as underdogs and 5-8 vs. the run line.

The Mets are 6-2 at home this season, 8-2 as favorites and 6-5 vs. the run line.

The Braves took the season series from N.Y. 13 games to six in 2005; the over/under went 7-11-1.

Atlanta’s Monday starter Jorge Sosa (0-2, 11.37 ERA) has had a rough time so far this season after a very promising 2005. Sosa went 13-3 last year, and the Braves went 15-6 in his starts. The o/u went 11-8. But in two starts in ’06, Sosa has allowed eight earned runs and 17 baserunners (hits + walks) in just 6 1/3 innings pitched.

Sosa has never started a game vs. the Mets.

Mets starter Pedro Martinez (2-0, 3.46 ERA) has been very good in his first two outings of ’06, giving up five ER and 13 BR in 13 IP. Martinez made five starts against the Braves last year, allowing eight ER and 29 BR in 37 IP.

New York went 17-14 in games stared by Martinez in ’05, while the o/u went 12-15.

Atlanta is averaging 6.3 runs per game this season, with a .346 team OBP and a 43/93 bases on balls to strikeout ratio.

The Mets are averaging 5.9 runs per game in ’06, with a .350 team OBP and a 27/59 BB/K ratio.

The Braves bullpen has been unimpressive this season, allowing 22 ER and 60 BR in 44 2/3 IP. Atlanta relievers have also blown four save opportunities already.

The New York bullpen has given up 13 ER and 40 BR in 31 IP thus far in ’06. But over the weekend vs. Milwaukee, Mets relievers gave up eight ER and 17 BR in 11 IP.

Shea Stadium games are averaging 10.0 runs per game this season, which is quite a bit more than the 8.4 RPG in 2005.

Atlanta’s Chipper Jones is still on the DL with a knee injury, while New York’s Carlos Beltran missed Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury and is doubtful for Monday.

The over is 9-4 in Braves games this season, 6-5 in Mets games.

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The Ultimatecapper Pick: We like the Mets today!