Behind the Lines – Volume 10

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Behind the Lines – Volume 10 ]]> include($base_url . “/includes/header.htm”); ?>

Behind the Lines – Volume 10
by T.B. of Sportsinsights.com

Well in the words of my man Flava Flav, who iscurrently disgracing himself on some horrible reality show onVH1, “This time the Revolution will not be televised.”It was a tough week for the Hub of The Universe. First the Patriots21-game winning streak was ended at Heinz Field. Then John Kerrylost and the following night the Celtics blew a 17 point leadin their opener to the 76ers.

But thankfully the NBA has returned in full force.And just in the nick of time, I don’t think I could have goneon much longer without my hockey! Just kidding. Besides BarryMelrose has anyone even noticed the NHL isn’t playing right now?But the NBA coming back is important because if you look at theschedule there’s really only 3 WEEKS left of full NCAA action.I can’t believe the football season is moving along at this rate.

At least the wins have picked up recently, atleast for some books. Last weekend was up and down and each shopI’m in contact with had a different story for each day. On thewhole Saturday was decent but Sunday it seemed like the bookswere running in quicksand all day, just couldn’t get started.

Right out of the gates Green Bay and Buffalo dashedthe hopes of having a monster day. Two easy covers, over the Redskinsand Cardinals respectively, meant the books were bailing wateralready. The Giants, Falcons and Steelers made things interestingbut most places only managed to scrape out a small profit.

Monday night was QUITE interesting though. Whata strange game. Most of the early money, including a few bucksfrom yours truly, was all over the Jets. I’ve been saying it sincearound Week 2, the Jets are better than the small amount of attentionthey’re getting so far. A big surprise there, a team from NewYork tied for the best record in the AFC and they’re still flyingunder the radar.

Anyways, something strange happened at a few ofthe offshore shops: Wiseguy money started flooding in on Miami.The lucky few accepted this gift from the gambling gods whilethose who didn’t receive the windfall basically gave back allthey made on Cincinnati the Monday before, and then some. Let’stake a look at the week ahead but we’ll look at the games in pairsthis week.

Vikings @ Colts – Mon. 9:00 (ABC) and Saints @Chargers – Sun. 4:05 (FOX)

Well in Vol. 5 (http://www.sportsinsights.com/behindthelines_vol5.asp)this space predicted a Colts game this year would have a postedOver/Under of 60 or more. If ever there was a game for it to happen,this would be it. Right now it stands at a gaudy 58 ½ andcould climb up to the magical 60 number before kickoff but I doubtit. Even though both of these teams play NO defense, 60 is stilla number books don’t like to put out there.
The reason I tied this game with the Chargers is the pointspreadin each game. The Colts opened up at -6 as did San Diego. Rightnow, there are 6 ½’s posted for each home favorite. Forthat reason I don’t put them in the category of home favoritetoo weak to lay -7 because I think by kickoff of both games youwill see 7’s out there. Right now the Chargers are getting 74%of the Straight money while Indianapolis getting practically ALLof the money in their game. With Randy Moss still questionableand the way Minnesota looked last week, don’t expect that to changetoo much.

Texans @ Broncos – Sun. 4:15 (CBS) and Chiefs@ Buccaneers – Sun. 1:00 (CBS)

We put these two games together because of somefunny line movement. Denver opened as a 6 ½ point favoriteat home against Houston. Even though the action is on Houston,to the tune of 57% of the Straights and 61% of the ‘Junk,’ wesee the line has actually climbed to -7 at most places.
In the other game, Tampa Bay is a home ‘dog. The line itself hasn’tchanged, but the money has even though K.C. is getting an enormousamount of the action: right now an incredible 92% of the Straightsand 91% of Parlays/Teasers. So the line should be shading in favorof the Chiefs, right? You would think but right now we see Oasishas moved it to K.C. -3 +100.Doesn’t seem like much but you have to question where the ‘smart’money is going in a situation like this.

Teaser Of The Week

Well we jumped back on the Indianapolis bandwagon last week andthey almost pulled off the cover. But their defense is just SOOOObad, it’s gotten to the point we can’t just rely on the league’sbest offense to bail them out.
So this week we turn to our tried and true strategy: Things thatmake you go, “Hmmm.” The Patriots secondary is decimatedwith both starting corners out for this one. The running gamemanaged 5 YARDS total last week and Corey Dillon is questionableagain this week. So how in the world are they favored on the roadin a dome against St. Louis? We don’t know either so the Patriotsteased up to + 4 ½ will be the first leg.
The second leg is the Raiders. I hate the Raiders, I think they’lllose 12 games this year. But teasing them up to +14 is too goodto pass up. I mean Carolina is 1-6 and averages 14 points a game.So theoretically the Raiders could get shut out and still geta push on this. “Just score, baby.” Enjoy the gamesthis weekend … T.B.

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