Chicago (11-4) at Minnesota (8-6-1)
When: Sunday, December 30th 2018
Where: U.S. Bank Stadium,
Minneapolis, Minnesota
Time: 4:25 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Minnesota -3/41
There is a lot at stake on Sunday around the NFL and the Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings contest is no different. The Bears have already punched their postseason ticket – and can improve on their seeding – but the Vikings must win or have their fate rest in the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles. Minnesota, which ranks third in overall defense (308.2 yards), can clinch a wild card with a victory – or a tie – against Chicago, but would also qualify for the playoffs with a loss or tie by Philadelphia against Washington. The Vikings have posted back-to-back victories following a rough stretch in which they dropped three of four. That stretch began with a 25-20 road loss in Week 11 to Chicago, which ranks fourth in overall defense (308.7) and second against the run (81.1). The Bears would secure a first-round bye with a win over Minnesota and a L.A. Rams loss to to San Francisco. Chicago has won three straight games entering Week 17 and eight of nine overall, including a 14-9 road victory over the 49ers last week. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings with Minnesota.
Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky had a rough game in Week 11 against Minnesota, throwing for just 165 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, but has joined Houston’s Deshaun Watson as the only quarterbacks in the league with at least 400 rushing yards and a passer rating of over 95. The dominant defense is led by linebacker Khalil Mack, who has a team-high 12.5 sacks, marking the fourth consecutive season he has reached double digits in that category. Chicago leads the NFL in both takeaways (36) and points off takeaways (107). The versatile Tarik Cohen leads all NFL running backs with seven receptions of at least 25 yards and also boasts the most punt return yards with 413.
Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs can become the first wide receiver duo in NFL history to each record 100 catches and 10 TDs in a season as Thielen needs one score while Diggs is six receptions and two touchdowns shy. Thielen made five catches for 80 yards in last week’s 27-9 win at Detroit and his one of only three undrafted players with at least 100 receptions (110) and 1,300 receiving yards (1,335) in a season. Like Trubisky, Kirk Cousins had a terrible game in Week 11, at least for three quarters until picking up some yards after the game was out of hand. He has completed over 400 passes (405) for the second time in his career and thrown for at least 4,000 yards (4,166) in four straight campaigns. Minnesota still can’t run the ball, ranking 30th at 95.3 yards a contest.
Minnesota needs this one a lot more than Chicago, and I can see the Bears not showing much with the playbook considering they could very well host the Vikings next weekend in a wild card game. The Vikings have been playing much better and should have enough to win and cover here.
Pick: Vikings -5.5
Betting Trends:
- Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC North.
- Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
- Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
- Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in December.
- Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Bears are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Vikings are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Vikings are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Vikings are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 home games.
- Vikings are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games in December.
- Vikings are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games on fieldturf.
- Vikings are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a ATS win.
- Vikings are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
- Vikings are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Vikings are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-1 in Bears last 9 games in December.
- Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 vs. NFC.
- Under is 8-2 in Bears last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-1 in Bears last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1 in Vikings last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 6-1 in Vikings last 7 games in December.
- Under is 6-1 in Vikings last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 vs. NFC.
- Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games in Week 17.
- Under is 21-7 in Vikings last 28 vs. NFC North.
- Under is 8-3 in Vikings last 11 home games.
- Over is 5-2 in Vikings last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Vikings last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3 in Vikings last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 7-3 in Vikings last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Home team is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 meetings.
- Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Minnesota.
- Under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.
