Arizona State (7-5) vs Fresno State (11-2)
When: Saturday, December 15th 2018
Where: Sam Boyd Stadium,
Las Vegas, Nevada
Time: 3:30 ET | TV: ABC
Opening Odds: Arizona State -3.5/52.5
Not much was expected out of the Arizona State Sun Devils football team this year, coming off a 7-6 season and bringing in a veteran coach who had been working at ESPN for the last decade. No, we’re not talking about Jon Gruden – who landed in the NFL – but Herm Edwards. The fiery coach got his team off to a great start by beating then No. 13 Michigan State to set the tone for a successful season despite some ups and downs along the way, most notably a loss to lowly Colorado. The Sun Devils finished second in the competitive Pac-12 South and will be playing in their second straight Bowl game. Arizona State was trounced 52-31 last year by NC State in the Sun Bowl and are 2-7 ATS in their last nine Bowl games. Edwards’ Sun Devils will take on the Fresno State Bulldogs in this year’s Las Vegas Bowl from Sam Boyd Stadium without leading receiver N’Keal Harry, who had 73 catches for 1,088 yards and nine touchdowns this season. Harry has decided to skip the contest and begin preparing for the NFL Draft. Fresno State earned this bowl bid with a dramatic 19-16 overtime win at Boise State on December 1st in the Mountain West Championship Game, putting themselves in position to win 12 games in a season for the first time in program history. The Bulldogs, who finished the regular season ranked No. 21 in the coaches’ poll, will also be looking to win bowl games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since winning three in a row from 2002-04.
Arizona State running back Eno Benjamin should be the focus on offense with Harry sitting this one out and it could be a historic one for the senior. Benjamin can break the single-season school rushing record with 42 yards on Saturday, eclipsing the 46-year-old Arizona State record (1,565) set by Woody Green. The Sun Devils also have an experienced senior quarterback in Manny Wilkins, who has completed 63 percent of his passes, throwing 19 touchdowns with four interceptions. Look for Wilkins to find junior wide receivers Kyle Williams and Brandon Aiyuk without his No. 1 receiver.
Fresno State quarterback Marcus McMaryion knows the Pac-12 well after playing his first two college years at Oregon State, but the Beavers never did have Arizona State on the schedule then. He was a big reason the Bulldogs went from a one-win team in 2016 to a 10-win team in 2017, helping them to a Bowl win over Houston in last year’s Hawaii Bowl. McMaryion had a fantastic season, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes, throwing 25 touchdowns and getting intercepted just three times – none in the past four games.
Arizona State has had a very nice season under Edwards, but its not as impressive as you think. They played in a very weak division and their win over Michigan State early isn’t as impressive anymore. They are ranked in the second half of the country in most offensive and defensive statistics. Fresno plays terrific defense and McMaryion can move the ball. The Bulldogs put 48 on UNLV at this very field back in early November and have scored 21 or more in every game since losing to Minnesota in September, with the exception of the two cold-weather games in Boise. The weather should be fine on Saturday in the desert.
Pick: Fresno State -4
Betting Trends:
- Sun Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
- Sun Devils are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Sun Devils are 10-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Sun Devils are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Sun Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Sun Devils are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
- Sun Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 bowl games.
- Sun Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Bowl games.
- Sun Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
- Sun Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. MWC.
- Sun Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in December.
- Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
- Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
- Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 26-7-1 ATS in their last 34 games overall.
- Bulldogs are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.
- Bulldogs are 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bulldogs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Bulldogs are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games on fieldturf.
- Bulldogs are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
- Bulldogs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. Pac-12.
- Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
- Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
- Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games.
- Over is 6-1 in Sun Devils last 7 Bowl games.
- Over is 6-1 in Sun Devils last 7 bowl games.
- Over is 4-1 in Sun Devils last 5 non-conference games.
- Over is 8-2 in Sun Devils last 10 neutral site games.
- Over is 5-2 in Sun Devils last 7 games in December.
- Under is 5-2 in Sun Devils last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 9-4 in Sun Devils last 13 vs. MWC.
- Under is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Bulldogs last 8 games in December.
- Under is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 13-3 in Bulldogs last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 non-conference games.
- Over is 16-4-1 in Bulldogs last 21 vs. Pac-12.
- Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-2 in Bulldogs last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 22-8 in Bulldogs last 30 games overall.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Bulldogs last 8 Bowl games.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Bulldogs last 8 neutral site games.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Bulldogs last 8 bowl games.
- Under is 35-15-1 in Bulldogs last 51 games following a straight up win.
