LA Angels (57-58) at Seattle (59-56)
When: Thursday, August 10th 2017
Where: Safeco Field, Seattle, WA
Time: 10:10 ET | TV: FSN West, ROOT Northwest
Opening Odds: Seattle -210/7.5
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Don’t look now, but the Seattle Mariners own the second American League Wild Card spot and will look to continue their hot play when they host the Los Angeles Angels in the opener of a four-game series on Thursday night. Seattle, who has won eight of their last 11 contests, lead both the Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Rays by one game in the WC standings and the Angels are just two back. The Mariners will send out lefty James Paxton, who has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this season. Paxton has won his last seven starts, during which he has posted a 1.59 ERA. He’s been particularly good over the last five outings, striking out 41 while issuing just two walks. The Angels are coming off a series win over Baltimore by winning the last two of a three-game set and 1B C.J. Cron is providing the hot bat, going 7-for-15 with five RBIs over the past four games. Superstar Mike Trout has not fared well against Paxton in his career, going 3-for-22 with 11 strikeouts versus the left-hander. Seattle DH Nelson Cruz, who is 1-for-12 against Thursday starter Tyler Skaggs, homered twice in Wednesday’s 6-3 victory over the Oakland Athletics and has gone deep six times in the past nine games.
Pitchers: Angels – Tyler Skaggs (1-2, 4.32 ERA) | Mariners – James Paxton (12-3, 2.70)
Skaggs has missed three months of the season and will make just his second start since returning from the disabled list. He didn’t fare well in his first start back, allowing three runs on six hits in just four innings of work against the Oakland A’s last Saturday. Skaggs is 1-2 with a 5.72 ERA in five career starts against the Mariners and has struggled with Robinson Cano (6-for-12) and Kyle Seager (6-for-13, one homer).
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Paxton hasn’t lost since June 27th, when he allowed three runs and four hits over seven innings against the Philadelphia Phillies. The lefty has been terrific at Safeco Field this season, going 7-2 with a 2.15 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 11 starts. Paxton is 1-0 with a 1.54 ERA in two starts against the Angels this season and is 4-2 with a 2.04 ERA in nine career outings.
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All the trends point towards Seattle in this one. They’re a hot team with a true ace on the mound tonight against a guy still trying to find his way back from a long absence. Laying the runline here should be no problem.
Pick: Mariners -1.5 -105
TRENDS
- Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Angels are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win.
- Angels are 23-47 in their last 70 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Angels are 4-9 in their last 13 road games.
- Angels are 3-7 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Angels are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. American League West.
- Angels are 4-10 in their last 14 Thursday games.
- Angels are 3-8 in their last 11 during game 1 of a series.
- Angels are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Angels are 4-1 in Skaggs’ last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Angels are 2-7 in Skaggs’ last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mariners are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League West.
- Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Mariners are 5-2 in their last 7 games following a win.
- Mariners are 5-2 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mariners are 5-2 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mariners are 13-6 in their last 19 during game 1 of a series.
- Mariners are 7-18 in their last 25 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Mariners are 1-6 in their last 7 Thursday games.
- Mariners are 7-0 in Paxton’s last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Paxton’s last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mariners are 7-0 in Paxton’s last 7 starts.
- Mariners are 7-0 in Paxton’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Mariners are 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mariners are 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 home starts.
- Mariners are 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mariners are 5-2 in Paxton’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mariners are 1-7 in Paxton’s last 8 Thursday starts.
- Under is 4-1 in Angels last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Angels last 5 on grass.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Angels last 6 Thursday games.
- Over is 4-1 in Angels last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 3-1-2 in Angels last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Angels last 5 games following a win.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Angels last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3-1 in Angels last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 50-20-3 in Angels last 73 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Angels last 8 vs. American League West.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Angels last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 7-3 in Angels last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 13-6-1 in Angels last 20 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Skaggs’ last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Skaggs’ last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Skaggs’ last 4 starts overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Skaggs’ last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 5-1 in Skaggs’ last 6 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Skaggs’ last 6 road starts.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Skaggs’ last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Skaggs’ last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Skaggs’ last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Skaggs’ last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 11-3-1 in Mariners last 15 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 13-5-1 in Mariners last 19 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 5-2 in Mariners last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Mariners last 7 vs. American League West.
- Over is 7-3-2 in Mariners last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-3 in Mariners last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 46-22-3 in Mariners last 71 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Paxton’s last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Paxton’s last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1 in Paxton’s last 6 Thursday starts.
- Over is 5-1 in Paxton’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 home starts.
- Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Seattle.
- Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
- Under is 5-2 in Paxton’s last 7 starts vs. Angels.
- Angels are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.
