Alabama (8-0) at LSU (7-1)
When: Saturday, November 3rd 2018
Where: Tiger Stadium,
Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Alabama -14.5/53.5
Death Valley in Baton Rouge – at night – is arguably the toughest place in all of the country for a road team to go into and come away with a victory. The LSU Tigers and their fans make life miserable for the opponents, and their hoping this Saturday is no different when the Bayou Bengals take on the top-ranked – and undefeated – Alabama Crimson Tide. This week’s contest is more than likely for the SEC West crown and a date in the conference championship game in a few weeks against either Georgia or Kentucky. The Tide have been rolling opponents all season, but will be tested against LSU’s third-ranked scoring defense that allows just 15.1 points per game. Alabama has defeated six of their eight opponents by 34 points or more and have scored at least 50 in all six of those blowouts. The Tigers’ defense is very opportunistic and must keep that going against a Tide offense that simply doesn’t turn the ball over. Alabama has won the past seven meetings including a 24-10 home victory last season.
Sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has stepped in for last year’s starter Jalen Hurts to put together one of the best seasons we’ve ever seen out of a quarterback. Tagovailoa has thrown for 2,066 yards and 25 touchdowns without throwing a single interception. Bama wide receivers are reaping those benefits including Jerry Jeudy, who has 31 receptions for 777 yards and 10 touchdowns. Sophomore wideout DeVonta Smith is dealing with a hamstring issue and could miss his second straight game. The defense is ranked almost as high as LSU’s, allowing an average of 15.9 points per game led by senior defensive end Isaiah Buggs (team-high 8.5 sacks) and junior cornerback Saivion Smith (three interceptions).
The LSU defense is tied for the national lead with 14 interceptions, including five from sophomore safety Grant Delpit, who also has four sacks. A key loss for the Tigers will be be junior linebacker Devin White (team-best 76 tackles), who will not play the first half due to a targeting infraction in their last game against Mississippi State. The Tigers are definitely not as good on offense as Alabama, with quarterback Jake Burrow passing for 1,544 yards and six touchdowns, while senior running back Nick Brossette has recorded 697 yards and 10 scores on the ground for an offense averaging 30.4 points per game (61st).
I’ve gone against LSU a few times this season and have been burned by them, and I’m going to do it again. LSU’s defense will finally be exploited here, especially in the first half without White on the field. Its crazy to say, but this may be the best Alabama team we’ve ever seen, because they finally have a dynamic quarterback. The fourth quarter will also be key, as Alabama’s main stars have not seen many minutes in the last 15 minutes due to always being up by a ton of points, so they have been more rested. I’ll lay the points here.
Pick: Alabama -14.5
Betting Trends:
- Crimson Tide are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Crimson Tide are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games.
- Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
- Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
- Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
- Tigers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
- Tigers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
- Tigers are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
- Tigers are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 4-1 in Crimson Tide last 5 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Crimson Tide last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Crimson Tide last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-1 in Crimson Tide last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 4-1 in Crimson Tide last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 4-1 in Crimson Tide last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Crimson Tide last 7 games on grass.
- Under is 40-19-1 in Crimson Tide last 60 games in November.
- Under is 21-10 in Crimson Tide last 31 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 10-1-1 in Tigers last 12 games following a bye week.
- Over is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games overall.
- Under is 12-3 in Tigers last 15 games in November.
- Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 10-3-1 in Tigers last 14 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Louisiana State.
- Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
- Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Crimson Tide are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Louisiana State.
- Road team is 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 meetings.
