Week 2 – NFL Match Up Analysis

September 14th 2007

San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots

Last Week: The Chargers beat Chicago 14-3 as a6-point favorite. The Patriots defeated the Jets 38-14 as a 6.5-pointfavorite.

This matchup, NBC’s Sunday Night Footballgame, could very well be a Super Bowl preview, as both teams areconsidered the best in their respective conferences. San Diego(1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) has a stellar ATS road record after allowing10 points or less, as they did against Chicago, cashing at a 10-4-1clip. Tom Brady and Randy Moss proved doubters wrong and lookedlike they could be magic together in New England’s win overthe Jets, and that chemistry should just get better. New England(1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) is 8-1 ATS at home off a double-digit divisionwin. The Patriots have been under in seven of 10 home openersand in 16 of 23 at Gillette Stadium after a win by seven pointsor more
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Last Week: Peyton Manning and the defending-championColts dominated the season-opener with a 41-10 win over the NewOrleans Saints. The Titans edged Jacksonville Jaguars 13-10 asa 7-point underdog.

Indianapolis (1-0-0 SU, 1-0-0 ATS) willbe looking for revenge in this AFC Southmatchup. The Colts edgedthe Titans 14-13 at home in Week 5 last season, and then droppeda 20-17 decision on the road in Week 13, failing to cover the7½-point spread. Overall, the Colts have cashed at a rateof 9-3-2 over their past 14 road openers, and are 12-2 on theroad in September. The Titans (1-0-0 SU, 1-0-0 ATS) are a veryimpressive 11-3 as underdogs over the past two seasons. But don’tbe fooled: they’re also 1-9-1 ATS after a win by three pointsor less. The Colts had covered six straight against Tennesseebefore falling short in both 2006 games.

Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins

Last Week: Dallas defeated the New York Giants45-35 as a 6.5-point favorite. The Dolphins lost to Washington16-13 as a 3-point underdog.

Dallas (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) is looking like one ofthe best teams in the National Football Conference. Miami (0-1SU, 0-0-1 ATS) was a last place team in 2006 and is rebuildingwith a new coach and a new quarterback. So it’s reasonable thatthe Cowboys are favorites in their first road game of the season.But the Cowboys have had a tough time on the road against AmericanFootball Conference teams, failing to cover in 15 of 20 chances.Strong trends include the Cowboys being 23-12-1 as road favoritesof seven points or less and 15-6 ATS away after allowing 30 pointsor more.

Miami is a very poor 9-23 ATS at home since 2003.

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers

Last Week: The Bills lost to Denver 15-14 as a3-point underdog, while the Steelers defeated Cleveland 34-7 asa 4.5-point favorite.

Pittsburgh (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) has covered sevenof its past nine against Buffalo (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS). The Steelersare 17-7 ATS at home after winning by 14 points or more and 25-13-2ATS after a double-digit division win. On the negative side, they’rejust 4-10-1 in their past 15 home openers. The Bills are 14-16ATS in Week 2 and they are 9-4 as road dogs versus a non-divisionfoe following a loss.

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Last Week: The Bengals beat the Baltimore Ravens27-20, covering the 3-point spread at home. The Browns lost toPittsburgh 34-7 as a 3.5-point underdog.

Cincinnati (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) has won five straightseries matchups (4-1 against the spread) against Cleveland (0-1SU, 0-1 ATS). In their past two head-to-head games, the Bengalswon by a combined score of 57-13. The Bengals have been solidas road favorites, cashing in 10 of 13. The Browns are 8-17 ATSversus division foes and they are a woeful 2-12 ATS in their past14 September games.

HoustonTexans at Carolina Panthers

Last Week: The Texans defeated the Kansas CityChiefs 20-3 as a 3-point favorite and the Panthers defeated theSt. Louis Rams 27-13 as a 1-point underdog.

Houston (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) will be looking to winfour consecutive games for the first time in franchise history.But the Texans are only 5-16 SU in their past 21 following a SUvictory. Carolina (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) is 4-12 as home favoritesand 6-11 ATS after winning by 14 points or more. The total hasgone under in 12 of the Panthers’ 16 games during the firstfour weeks of the season. Houston is under in 18 of 27 as roadunderdogs.

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams

Last Week: The 49ers held on for a 20-17 win overthe Cardinals, but failed to cover the 3.5-point spread at home.The Rams lost to Carolina 27-13 as a 1-point favorite.

San Francisco (1-0 SU, 0-0-1 ATS) is 5-0 ATS againstSt. Louis (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) and cashed in 20 of their past 28head-to-head matchups. The Niners have also made money in 10 of13 games in St. Louis. The Rams have failed to cash 15 of 23 followingSU and ATS losses. The underdog team has ended up covering thespread in six of the past seven head-to-head matchups and theSU winner is 20-3-1 ATS.

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants

Last Week: The Packers defeated Philadelphia 16-13as a 3-point and the Giants lost to Dallas 45-35 as a 6.5-pointunderdog.

Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers (1-0 SU,1-0 ATS) have a pathetic 1-10 ATS record as road underdogs againstteams from the NFC East division. New York (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) is14-2 ATS after scoring 35 points or more and 7-1 ATS off a straightup loss to a division foe. The Giants are already in injury trouble,however, including the loss of QB Eli Manning for a month. TheGiants have gone over at a rate of 29-18-1 as favorites aftera SU loss. The Packers have been below at a 15-4-1 rate afterwinning SU as an under dog.

Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars

Last Week: The Falcons lost to Minnesota 24-3as a 3-point underdog. The Jaguars lost to Tennessee 13-10 asa 7-point favorite.

Jacksonville (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) has been a solidbet at home versus NFC opposition. The Jaguars have cashed inon 17 of 23 games versus non-conference foes at Municipal Stadium.They are also 13-3 ATS after scoring and allowing 14 points orless. Atlanta (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) is 6-11-1 as underdogs versusAFC teams. The Falcons have been under in eight of their lastnine road games and in nine of 10 on grass. Jacksonville has beenbelow the over/under in 14 of 16 after allowing 175 or more rushingyards in its last game.

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Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last Week: The Saints were crushed 41-10 by theIndianapolis Colts as 5.5-point underdogs at the RCA Dome. TheBuccaneers lost to Seattle 20-6 as a 6-point underdog.

Tampa Bay (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) had won four of sixand covered five of six against New Orleans (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)before getting their helmets handed to them in a 31-14 loss lastyear. The road team in this NFC-South rivalry has covered at a12-3-1 pace. The Saints are 10-3 as division road favorites andthey have cashed 20 of their last 23 on the road overall. TheBuccaneers are 15-6-1 ATS after scoring 10 points or less.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Last Week: The Vikings defeated Atlanta 24-3 asa 3-point favorite. The Lions defeated Oakland 36-21 as a 2.5-pointunderdog

Minnesota (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) has a perfect recordagainst the Lions (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) in recent years, winning thepast 10 straight head-to-head games and covering the spread thepast four. The Vikings are 7-13 ATS in their past 20 road openers.The Lions are 10-20 as home favorites. Eleven of the past 15 meetingsin the Motor City have been over the game total. Minnesota hasgone over the total in 36 of its last 55 on the road against divisionrivals.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Last Week: The Seahawks defeated Tampa Bay 20-6as a 6-point favorite, while the Cardinals fell 20-17 to the 49’ersas 3.5-point underdogs.

Seattle (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) had won four straightgames and seven of eight (6-2 ATS) against Arizona (0-1 SU, 0-0-1ATS) until falling in its last visit as three-point favorites,27-21. The Seahawks are 7-16 as road favorites and 3-12 away fromhome when favored by 3.5 points or less. However, the Cardinalsare 3-18 as home underdogs during September. The SU winner inthe series is 13-1 ATS. The last five head-to-head matchups havegone over.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens

Last Week: The Jets lost to New England 38-14as a 6.5-point underdog, and the Ravens were defeated 27-20 intheir season-opener by the Bengals as 3-point underdogs.

The New York Jets (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) are an impressive7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 road openers. The Jets have lost andfailed to cover in nine of their last dozen on the road versusa non-division opponent. Baltimore (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) has facedthe Jets five times in the past 10 seasons, covering the spreadeach time and winning four straight. The Ravens are 11-2 as homefavorites the first two weeks of the season and 22-5 as non-divisionhome chalk.

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Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

Last Week: The Raiders lost to Detroit 36-21 asa 2.5-point favorite. The Broncos edged Buffalo 15-14 as a 3-pointfavorite.

The Broncos (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) have won seven of eight head-to-headgames versus Oakland (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS), though they did not coverthe spread in both games last season after cashing in five ofsix. The Raiders are 1-14-1 after suffering a SU loss as favoritesand they have lost 22 of 33 spread decisions on the road. TheBroncos are 12-5-2 as division home favorites, though they havefallen short in their past six versus AFC West rivals the pasttwo seasons. Oakland has been under in 12 of its last 16 on theroad and in six straight away from home against division rivals.The Raiders have also gone under in 11 of 13 on the road.

Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears

Last Week: The Chiefs lost to Houston 20-3 asa 3-point, and the Bears lost to the San Diego Chargers 14-3 asa 6-point underdog.

Kansas City (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) is 5-13 SU and 4-13-1ATS on the road against NFC foes. Chicago (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) hascashed in 13 of 16 ATS when facing teams from the NFC-West andin 17 of 22 at home against AFC opponents. The Bears have alsocovered 17 of 22 at home following a double-digit road loss. Theyhave fallen short in 12 of 18 as home favorites during the firstfour weeks of the season. The Chiefs are 19-7 ATS following ablowout road loss by 14 points or more. Chicago has gone overthe total in nine of 10 as home favorites. Kansas City has beenunder in 21 of 29 in the first two weeks of the season.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles

Last Week: The Redskins defeated Miami Dolphins16-13 in overtime as a 3-point favorite. The Eagles lost to GreenBay 16-13 as a 3-point favorite in Week 1.

Washington (1-0 SU, 0-0-1 ATS) is 10-5 ATS inits past 15 on the road against divisional opponents, and hasmade money for bettors in 25 of 35 as road underdogs of 3½to seven points. Straight up, Philadelphia (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) haswon 11 of its last 15 versus Washington at home. The Eagles are9-2 ATS at home after a loss by three points or less. Washingtonhas been under the posted game total in its past seven Mondaynight appearances, and have been under in 20 of 28 during thefirst two weeks of the season.

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