New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears Preview and Pick ]]> include($base_url . “/includes/header.htm”); ?>
|New Orleans Saints (11-6) at Chicago Bears (14-3) -2.5, o/u 43, 3:00 p.m. Eastern Sunday, January 21, Fox Network
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
The New Orleans Saints and Chicago Bears meet in the NFCChampionship at Soldier Field in Chicago. The story linehere is the best team in the NFC this year, Chicago, facing thesurprising team nobody expected to be here with New Orleans.
New Orleans was a consistent team all season and earned the #2 seed in the NFC despite losing 2 of their last 3 regular season games. Last week they fought off the Philadelphia Eagles by a score of 27-24 to advance to the championship game.
Chicago has been cruising along all season as they won their first 9 games on their way to the #1 seed in the NFC. Chicago defeated Seattle last week in overtime by a score of 27-24 to advance to the championship game.
The Saints are 10-7 against the spread this season; they are 6-2 straight up and 7-1 ATS on the road.
The Bears are 11-6 ATS this season, and they are 7-2 SU and 5-4 vs. the number at home.
New Orleans is led by Drew Brees who came to the Saints in the offseason from San Diego. Brees has had a great year throwing for 27 TDs and 11 interceptions on the year. His QB rating is 96.3 with a completion rate of 64.22%.
Chicago is led by Rex Grossman who has thrown for 24 TDs and 21 interceptions this season. His QB rating is 74.1 with a completion rate of 54.63%.
The Saints are being outrushed by their opponents this season by a 116-129 yards-per-game average, while the Bears are outrushing their opponents by a 120-101 YPG margin.
New Orleans is averaging 6.0 yards per play on the season while Chicago is averaging 5.1 yards per play. The Saints defense has given up an average of 5.6 yards per play while the Bears have given up an average of 4.8 yards per play.
These two teams have played four common opponents this season. In these games New Orleans was 5-0 and averaged 30.6 points and gave up an average of 15.8 points. Chicago is 4-1 and is averaging 29.2 points and giving up an average of 17.4 points against these 4 teams.
The last time these teams met was 11/6/05 with the Bears winning by a score of 20-17.
New Orleans ranks 1st in total offense averaging 391.7 yards per game. Chicago ranks 15th with 325.2 yards per game.
In scoring offense, the Saints rank 5th averaging 25.8 points per game and the Bears rank 2nd averaging 26.7 points per game.
On the defensive side of the ball the Saints rank 11th in total defense giving up 307.3 yards per game while the Bears rank 6th giving up an average of 295.2 yards per game.
In scoring defense New Orleans ranks 13th and Chicago ranks 3rd giving up 20.1 and 15.9 points per game, respectively.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com ranks New Orleans #8 at 23.54, Chicago is #4 at 28.71.
The Over/Under is 9-8 in Saints games this season, 12-4-1 in Bears games.
Chicago opened up as a 3 point favorite with a total of 44. The line has dropped to Chicago -2.5 and the total has dropped to 43. At the time of this writing, the betting public was backing the Saints 64%-36%.
The Ultimatecapper Pick: We feel that Chicago defense is overrated and that this game has the potential of being a shootout. We think the side is too close to call but recommend a wager on over the total of 43.
Chicago 27 New Orleans 24