2007 AFC Divisional Playoff Preview and Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (13-4) at Baltimore Ravens (13-3) -4, o/u 41.5, 4:30 p.m. Eastern Saturday, January 13, CBS Network
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff

The Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens meet in Round 2 of the playoffs at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. The story line here will be how Peyton Manning will perform against the terrific Raven defense.


Indianapolis got off to a fast start this season with a 9-0 start but then struggled defensively and were forced to play in the first round of the playoffs. Last week they shut down the Chiefs offense in 23-8 win to advance against the Ravens. Baltimore, the #2 seed in the AFC, won 9 of their last 10 games. In their last 7 games they have only allowed an average of 9 points per game.

The Colts are 9-8 against the spread this season; they are 4-4 straight up and 3-5 ATS on the road.

The Ravens are 10-6 ATS this season, and they are 7-1 SU and 6-2 vs. the number at home.Indianapolis’s starting QB, Peyton Manning, is having another big year. He has 32 touchdown passes and only 12 interceptions. His QB rating is 99.2 with a completion rate of 65.88%.

Baltimore is led by Steve McNair who came to the Ravens in the offseason from Tennessee. He has 16 TDs and 12 interceptions on the year. His QB rating is 82.5 with a completion rate of 63.03%.

The Colts are being outrushed by their opponents this season by a 115-165 yards-per-game average, while the Ravens are outrushing their opponents by a 102-76 YPG margin.

Indianapolis is averaging an impressive 6.1 yards per play on the season while Baltimore is averaging 5.1 yards per play. The Colts defense has given up an average of 5.6 yards per play while the Ravens have given up an average of 4.8 yards per play.

These two teams have played five common opponents this season. In these games Indianapolis was 5-1 and averaged 23.2 points and gave up an average of 17.33 points.

Baltimore is 4-1 and is averaging 19.0 points and giving up an average of 15.2 points against these 5 teams.

These two teams have last met on 9/11/05 with the Colts winning in Indianapolis by a score of 24-7. The Colts have won 6 out of the last 10 meetings between these 2 teams.

Indianapolis ranks 3rd in total offense averaging 379.4 yards per game. Baltimore ranks 17th with 317.0 yards per game.

In scoring offense, the Colts rank 3rd averaging 26.7 points per game and the Ravens rank 12th averaging 22.1 points per game.

On the defensive side of the ball the Colts rank 21st in total defense giving up 332.2 yards per game while the Ravens rank 1st giving up an average of 264.1 yards per game.

In scoring defense Indianapolis ranks 23rd and Baltimore ranks 1st giving up 22.5 and 12.6 points per game, respectively.

The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com ranks Indianapolis #5 at 27.88, Baltimore is #3 at 29.63.

The Over/Under is 8-9 in Colts games this season, 6-9-1 in Ravens games.

Baltimore opened up as a 3 point favorite with a total of 42. The line has risen to Baltimore -4 and the total has dropped to 41.5. At the time of this writing, the betting public was backing the Colts 58%-42%.

The Ultimatecapper Pick: We suggest a wager on the Ravens in this game as believe the better rushing attack and defense get it done here.

Baltimore 28 Indianapolis 17

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Jay has been watching and following sports since he could walk and turned to betting in his late teens. His favorite sport is MLB and has been producing winners on UltimateCapper for over 15 years. Follow Jay's free sports picks and enjoy the winners.