2005 Kentucky Derby Picks

1. Noble Causeway 2. Don’t Get Mad 3. Wilko

With this year’s Kentucky Derby, one can looklike a super idiot. On face value, Bellamy Road’s Wood was oneof the most impressive Derby preps of all time. His 120 Beyerwas tied with Ghostzapper’s BC Classic win and the he broke atrack record that was set by Riva Ridge as an older horse. Purelyoff that race, he is the one to beat but the feeling is he peakedone race too soon. Sure, he doesn’t have to repeat that kind offigure to still win, but the way the race sets up suggests hewill be pressed every step of the way on a very fast pace.

You pretty much have to take a stand and eithersuggest the speed will stick, or that it will fold like a cheapsuit. I’m going the cheap suit route. There are no less than 7that may have designs on the lead but the problem with that is,that everybody sees there is a ton of speed in here and it ispossible that somebody will make the top and nobody will challengehim. You could almost hear some riders thinking, Guidry’s goingto chase, or Desormeaux will gun, and before you know it, somebodyis loping along on the lead. That probably will NOT materialize.

With a race of this magnitude, sometimes thepace is left on the back burner and forgotten about in some corners.The pace is almost always hectic in the Derby because of the moment.Bellamy Road really has not had to fight for a lead in the pastand he may have to stalk this time. And if he is in between horsesand getting some dirt kicked in his face, he may not fire hisbest shot.

So let’s go with the horse that, despite nothaving raced in 5 weeks, has some upside to him. And that’s NobleCauseway. He is brilliantly bred, has a beautiful Beyer progressiongoing with 5 straight improved figures, and he has trained wellover the surface. And you get 12-1 on the morning line and GaryStevens to boot. The home court advantage goes to Don’t Get Madas he is unbeaten at Churchill. In an era when horses win freshevery single day around the country, Mad is back in a week. Ifhe can find room, he may justify the faith his good trainer RonEllis has had in him since Day One. Wilko at 20-1 will continueto be the Rodney Dangerfield no respect horse and that is afterhe won the BC Juvenile last year over legit contender today AfleetAlex. He’s training out of his mind according to conditioner CraigDollase and if you use him in the trifecta with 30-1 Mad, andyou cash, you will get paid. Good luck.

Clickhere to bet on horse races using your checking account!