Yankees vs Red Sox Preview, Odds, Trends, & Free Pick [8/19/17]

NY Yankees (65-56) at Boston (70-51)
When: Saturday, August 19th 2017
Where: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: MLB Network
Opening Odds: Boston -228/7.5

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The New York Yankees blew a chance to stay close to the Boston Red Sox in the AL East on Friday and now must face the probable American League Cy Young winner in Chris Sale on Saturday night. New York looked like it would pick up a game in the standings after taking a 6-3 lead in the seventh inning on Friday, but relievers Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle combined to allow four runs in the bottom of the seventh before closer Aroldis Chapman surrendered two more runs in the eighth in a 9-6 loss. Chapman is having all sorts of problems, allowing two earned runs in each of his last three appearances, including a couple last Sunday to Boston. The Yankees still own the first AL wild card spot and hold a comfortable 3.5-game over the second-place Los Angeles Angels and Minnesota Twins. Yankees’ slugger Aaron Judge tied the major-league record by striking out for the 35th straight game on Friday and could very well break the dubious mark when he faces Sale on Saturday. Boston third baseman Rafael Devers is 11-for-26 with four homers, eight RBIs and seven runs scored during a seven-game hitting streak.

Pitchers: Yankees – CC Sabathia (9-5, 4.05 ERA) | Red Sox – Chris Sale (14-4, 2.51)

CC Sabathia is coming back from a short stint on the disabled list and will need to be just as good against Boston tonight as he has been this season. Sabathia held Boston scoreless over eight innings at home on June 7th and scattered two hits and five walks over six more scoreless innings at Fenway Park on July 16th. Sabathia was not nearly as strong in his three starts prior to hitting the DL, allowing a total of 12 runs in 13.1 innings.

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Sale has been spectacular all season and even better as the summer rolls on, allowing one or no runs in five of his last six starts. He still is looking for his first victory in his fourth start this season against New York despite posting a 1.19 ERA. Sale struck out 12 at New York on Sunday night – his 16th double-digit strikeout performance of the season – and surrendered just one run and four hits in seven innings but was held out of the decision in a game the Red Sox won in 10 innings.

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I’m trying to find a reason to take the Yankees in this one, but I just can’t. Yes, Sabathia has been great against Boston this season, but that was when he was healthier and pitching well. Boston will carry the momentum from last night’s comeback victory to an easy win on Saturday.

Pick: Red Sox -1.5 -120

  • Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss.
  • Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
  • Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
  • Yankees are 8-3 in their last 11 during game 2 of a series.
  • Yankees are 11-5 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
  • Yankees are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Yankees are 8-23 in their last 31 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Yankees are 2-6 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Yankees are 2-7 in their last 9 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
  • Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Yankees are 7-0 in Sabathia’s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Yankees are 4-0 in Sabathia’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Yankees are 8-0 in Sabathia’s last 8 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Yankees are 9-1 in Sabathia’s last 10 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Yankees are 10-2 in Sabathia’s last 12 starts vs. American League East.
  • Yankees are 8-2 in Sabathia’s last 10 starts with 10 or more days of rest.
  • Yankees are 4-1 in Sabathia’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Yankees are 5-2 in Sabathia’s last 7 road starts.
  • Yankees are 14-6 in Sabathia’s last 20 starts.
  • Yankees are 11-5 in Sabathia’s last 16 starts on grass.
  • Yankees are 1-4 in Sabathia’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Yankees are 1-5 in Sabathia’s last 6 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
  • Yankees are 0-4 in Sabathia’s last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Red Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
  • Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Red Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
  • Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Red Sox are 11-2 in their last 13 games on grass.
  • Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League East.
  • Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Red Sox are 10-2 in their last 12 games following a win.
  • Red Sox are 14-3 in their last 17 overall.
  • Red Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Red Sox are 16-6 in their last 22 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Red Sox are 4-0 in Sale’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Red Sox are 5-0 in Sale’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Red Sox are 5-0 in Sale’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
  • Red Sox are 5-0 in Sale’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Red Sox are 6-1 in Sale’s last 7 starts during game 2 of a series.
  • Red Sox are 6-1 in Sale’s last 7 home starts.
  • Red Sox are 5-1 in Sale’s last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Red Sox are 13-3 in Sale’s last 16 starts on grass.
  • Red Sox are 4-1 in Sale’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Red Sox are 8-2 in Sale’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Red Sox are 4-1 in Sale’s last 5 Saturday starts.
  • Red Sox are 17-5 in Sale’s last 22 starts.
  • Red Sox are 6-2 in Sale’s last 8 starts vs. American League East.
  • Red Sox are 9-3 in Sale’s last 12 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 during game 2 of a series.
  • Under is 9-2-1 in Yankees last 12 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 8-2-1 in Yankees last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 6-2 in Yankees last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
  • Under is 6-2-1 in Yankees last 9 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-2 in Yankees last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Under is 5-2-1 in Yankees last 8 games following a loss.
  • Under is 7-3-1 in Yankees last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 13-6-1 in Yankees last 20 road games.
  • Under is 6-0 in Sabathia’s last 6 Saturday starts.
  • Under is 4-0 in Sabathia’s last 4 road starts.
  • Under is 9-1 in Sabathia’s last 10 starts on grass.
  • Under is 7-1-1 in Sabathia’s last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 20-5-1 in Sabathia’s last 26 starts during game 2 of a series.
  • Under is 4-1 in Sabathia’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 7-2 in Sabathia’s last 9 starts with 10 or more days of rest.
  • Under is 15-5-2 in Sabathia’s last 22 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 20-7-3 in Sabathia’s last 30 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Under is 17-6-3 in Sabathia’s last 26 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 20-8-2 in Sabathia’s last 30 starts vs. American League East.
  • Under is 9-4-1 in Sabathia’s last 14 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 35-17-3 in Sabathia’s last 55 starts overall.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in Red Sox last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 vs. American League East.
  • Under is 6-2 in Red Sox last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in Red Sox last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 6-2 in Red Sox last 8 during game 2 of a series.
  • Over is 5-2-1 in Red Sox last 8 overall.
  • Under is 20-8-1 in Red Sox last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Over is 5-2-1 in Red Sox last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 18-8-1 in Red Sox last 27 home games.
  • Over is 19-9-1 in Red Sox last 29 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Under is 5-0 in Sale’s last 5 starts vs. American League East.
  • Under is 6-1 in Sale’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-1 in Sale’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 4-1 in Sale’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
  • Under is 7-2 in Sale’s last 9 starts overall.
  • Under is 6-2 in Sale’s last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-2 in Sale’s last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Over is 5-2 in Sale’s last 7 starts during game 2 of a series.
  • Under is 5-2 in Sale’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 9-1-1 in Sabathia’s last 11 starts vs. Red Sox.
  • Yankees are 7-2 in Sabathia’s last 9 starts vs. Red Sox.
  • Under is 3-1-1 in Sabathia’s last 5 road starts vs. Red Sox.
  • Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings in Boston.
  • Yankees are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.

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