NY Yankees (5-5) at Boston (8-1)
When: Tuesday, April 10th 2018
Where: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Boston -145/7.5
Slugger Giancarlo Stanton busted out of the gates in his first game with the New York Yankees, blasting two home runs in Toronto on Opening Day, but is now on a historic strikeout pace. He will get his first taste of the Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox rivalry when the teams meet at Fenway Park on Tuesday night to begin a three-game series. Stanton struck out five times for the second time this season on Sunday, while going 0-for-7, and is 3-for-30 with 17 K’s in the last seven games. The Yankees dropped three of four to the Baltimore Orioles over the weekend and their bullpen might be a bigger concern right now than Stanton. New York’s ‘pen finished third in all of baseball with a 3.34 ERA, but are currently 24th at 4.89. Boston’s pitching staff is the reason they have won eight straight games after dropping their season opener, but the offense bailed them out on Sunday. The Red Sox used a six-run rally in the eighth inning to secure an 8-7 win along with a sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays and is beginning to see more production from their new slugger – J.D. Martinez. Boston will be without shortstop Xander Bogaerts (ankle) on Tuesday after he was placed on the 10-day disabled list on Monday. The Yankees won a tight season series in 2017 (11-8), despite losing out to the Red Sox for the A.L. East crown. The pitching matchup on Tuesday with aces Luis Severino and Chris Sale opposing each other.
Pitchers: Yankees – Luis Severino (2-0, 1.38 ERA) | Red Sox – Chris Sale (0-0, 0.82)
Severino will make his third start and has been solid over the first two, working 5.2 scoreless innings at Toronto on Opening Day and allowing just two runs over 7.1 innings against Tampa Bay to earn his second win on Wednesday. Severino has 14 strikeouts and allowed just six hits in those two outings. He went 2-1 with a 3.33 ERA in four starts against Boston last season and was particularly solid at Fenway Park, posting a 0.64 ERA in two outings.
Sale will make his first home start this season and will look to keep the pitch count down that caused him to record two no-decisions thus far. He has however, been effective in his 11 total innings, striking out 15 and walking three in his first two starts. Sale made his first two starts in his home state of Florida (Tampa Bay and Miami) and is returning to Boston, where he posted a 7-3 record with a 3.16 ERA in 13 starts last season. Sale went 0-3 in five starts against New York last season despite posting a 2.65 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 34 innings.
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I’m not worried about Stanton or the Yankees bullpen just yet. Its way too early in the season to start panicking. I expect Stanton to be more relaxed away from home and have a good series this week in Fenway. Severino is one of the best pitchers in the game right now and he was terrific last season against Boston. Sale was good as well, but the Red Sox have lost four of the last five games he has started against New York. I’ll take a shot with the Baby Bombers tonight.
Pick: Yankees +130
BETTING TRENDS:
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 Tuesday games.
- Yankees are 12-3 in their last 15 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 7-2 in their last 9 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 14-5 in their last 19 games following a loss.
- Yankees are 8-3 in their last 11 during game 1 of a series.
- Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 games following an off day.
- Yankees are 3-9 in their last 12 road games.
- Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Severino’s last 5 starts vs. American League East.
- Yankees are 6-0 in Severino’s last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 8-1 in Severino’s last 9 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 7-1 in Severino’s last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 7-1 in Severino’s last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Yankees are 6-1 in Severino’s last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 5-1 in Severino’s last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Yankees are 17-4 in Severino’s last 21 starts.
- Yankees are 7-2 in Severino’s last 9 road starts.
- Yankees are 14-5 in Severino’s last 19 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 21-8 in Severino’s last 29 starts on grass.
- Yankees are 4-10 in Severino’s last 14 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Yankees are 2-5 in Severino’s last 7 Tuesday starts.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Red Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a win.
- Red Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 overall.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
- Red Sox are 14-4 in their last 18 games following an off day.
- Red Sox are 16-5 in their last 21 vs. American League East.
- Red Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 12-5 in their last 17 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 37-16 in their last 53 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 35-16 in their last 51 Tuesday games.
- Red Sox are 7-1 in Sale’s last 8 Tuesday starts.
- Red Sox are 16-5 in Sale’s last 21 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 6-2 in Sale’s last 8 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 7-3 in Sale’s last 10 home starts.
- Red Sox are 9-4 in Sale’s last 13 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games following a loss.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 vs. American League East.
- Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 on grass.
- Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 road games.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Yankees last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 9-2 in Severino’s last 11 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 9-2 in Severino’s last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 8-2 in Severino’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 14-4 in Severino’s last 18 starts overall.
- Over is 10-3 in Severino’s last 13 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 22-8 in Severino’s last 30 starts on grass.
- Over is 19-7 in Severino’s last 26 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 11-2 in Red Sox last 13 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 16-4-2 in Red Sox last 22 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 7-2 in Red Sox last 9 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Red Sox last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 20-8 in Red Sox last 28 games following an off day.
- Over is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 11-5 in Red Sox last 16 on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Sale’s last 6 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 7-1 in Sale’s last 8 starts overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Sale’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Sale’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 9-3 in Sale’s last 12 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Boston.
- Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
- Under is 4-1 in Sale’s last 5 starts vs. Yankees.
- Under is 5-2 in Severino’s last 7 starts vs. Red Sox.
- Red Sox are 1-4 in Sale’s last 5 starts vs. Yankees.
