NY Yankees (60-31) at Cleveland (50-41)
When: Thursday, July 12th 2018
Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: MLB Network
Opening Odds: Cleveland -110/7
A former Cy Young Award pitcher will take the mound against one that just might win his first this season when the Cleveland Indians host the New York Yankees to begin a big four-game series. Cleveland sends two-time Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber to the mound to face potential All-Star starter Luis Severino, who has a major league-high 14 wins on the season. Cleveland snapped a four-game losing streak in a big way last night with a 19-4 thumping of the red-hot Cincinnati Reds to improve their home mark to 29-17. All-Star Jose Ramirez continues to make his case for MVP by blasting a pair of homers, giving him three in two days and 27 on the season. Ramirez needs one stolen base to become the second Cleveland player to record at least 20 homers and 20 steals before the All-Star break. The Yankees avoided losing a series against the major league-worst Baltimore Orioles with a 9-0 victory on Wednesday as Greg Bird led the way with his first career grand slam. Slugger Giancarlo Stanton added four hits and two RBIs for the Yankees and is 10-for-23 over his last five games, raising his season batting average to .276. New York still trails the Red Sox by 3.5 games in the AL East, but sit comfortably in the top Wild Card spot. New York SS Didi Gregorius and OF Aaron Judge are both riding six-game hitting streaks. The Yankees are 3-0 against the Indians this season after losing five of seven regular-season matchups last year.
Pitchers: Yankees – Luis Severino (14-2, 2.12 ERA) | Indians – Corey Kluber (12-4, 2.49)
Severino has 14 quality starts on the year, but couldn’t record one last time out against Toronto. He allowed three runs and five hits – two homers – over five innings on Saturday but still was able to record his fifth consecutive victory. Severino is sixth in the American League with 143 strikeouts over 123.1 innings. He is 2-1 with a 2.49 ERA in four career regular-season starts against the Tribe.
Speaking of quality starts – Kluber has 17 of them in 19 starts this season including another masterpiece against Oakland last week. He threw seven scoreless innings, but came away with a no-decision in a game Cleveland went on to lose 6-3. Kluber has been dominant at Progressive Field this season, posting a 7-1 mark and 1.43 ERA in 10 starts. He is 5-1 with a 1.80 ERA in seven career regular-season starts against the Yankees.
Boy, this is some pitching matchup here. I know both offenses have a lot of fire-power – and they proved that last night – but pitching rules in this contest. Severino and Kluber strikeout a ton of batters and these two offenses tend to whiff a lot. I’m taking the under in this one, thinking it will be no more than a 3-2 type game.
Pick: UNDER 7.5 -120
BETTING TRENDS:
- Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 Thursday games.
- Yankees are 9-3 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 23-8 in their last 31 vs. American League Central.
- Yankees are 46-18 in their last 64 games on grass.
- Yankees are 10-4 in their last 14 during game 1 of a series.
- Yankees are 42-18 in their last 60 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 16-7 in their last 23 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Yankees are 50-22 in their last 72 overall.
- Yankees are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Severino’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Severino’s last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 Thursday starts.
- Yankees are 6-1 in Severino’s last 7 road starts.
- Yankees are 13-3 in Severino’s last 16 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Yankees are 23-6 in Severino’s last 29 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 38-13 in Severino’s last 51 starts.
- Yankees are 38-13 in Severino’s last 51 starts on grass.
- Yankees are 9-4 in Severino’s last 13 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Yankees last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Yankees last 10 Thursday games.
- Under is 13-3 in Yankees last 16 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 21-5 in Yankees last 26 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 15-4 in Yankees last 19 road games.
- Under is 21-6 in Yankees last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 20-6 in Yankees last 26 on grass.
- Under is 26-8 in Yankees last 34 overall.
- Under is 11-4-1 in Yankees last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 10-4-1 in Yankees last 15 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 9-0 in Severino’s last 9 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Severino’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 7-2-1 in Severino’s last 10 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 10-4-1 in Severino’s last 15 starts overall.
- Under is 5-2 in Severino’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Indians last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Indians last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 6-1 in Indians last 7 Thursday games.
- Over is 20-5-2 in Indians last 27 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1 in Indians last 5 vs. American League East.
- Over is 26-7-2 in Indians last 35 home games.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Indians last 9 overall.
- Over is 15-5-1 in Indians last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Indians last 9 on grass.
- Over is 8-0-1 in Kluber’s last 9 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Kluber’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Kluber’s last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Kluber’s last 9 home starts.
- Under is 5-1 in Kluber’s last 6 Thursday starts.
- Over is 12-3-1 in Kluber’s last 16 starts on grass.
- Over is 12-3-1 in Kluber’s last 16 starts overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Kluber’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 3-1-2 in Kluber’s last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Kluber’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-2 in Kluber’s last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Yankees are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
- Over is 5-0 in Severino’s last 5 starts vs. Indians.
- Indians are 6-1 in Kluber’s last 7 starts vs. Yankees.
- Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Over is 10-4-3 in the last 17 meetings in Cleveland.
