NY Yankees (1-0) at Houston (0-1)
When: Sunday, October 13th 2019
Where: Minute Maid Park,
Houston, Texas
Time: 8:08 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Houston -154/7.5
The Bronx Bombers made a big statement in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series with the Houston Astros, banging out 13 hits including three home runs in taking Game 1 on Saturday night. This is a rematch of the 2017 ALCS in which the home team won all seven games, but this is a much more seasoned New York squad. Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, and Giancarlo Stanton all homered in the 7-0 win, but more impressive might have been the outing from Masahiro Tanaka. The Japanese native continues to deliver when it matters most and allowed just one hit in six scoreless innings and threw just 68 pitches, meaning he’ll be fresh in his next start. Top three batters in the Yankees lineup – DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, and Torres, were a combined 7-for-14 with five RBI – all by Torres, while the Astros potent lineup managed just three singles. Houston’s George Springer is 3-for-25 in the postseason after going 0-for-4 on Saturday. The Astros look to slow the New York offense behind Justin Verlander in Sunday’s Game 2, while the Yankees counter with lefty James Paxton.
Pitchers: Yankees – James Paxton (0-0, 5.79 ERA) | Astros – Justin Verlander (1-1, 3.38)
Paxton struck out eight in 4.2 innings versus the Twins in Game 1 of the ALDS, but allowed three runs – two homers – and came away with a no-decision. It was only Paxton’s second start since September 21st and he went only one inning in his last regular season outing because of tightness in his left glute. He was rocked in the first of two starts against Houston this season at Minute Maid Park, allowing five runs and eight hits over four innings, but came back strong on June 21st to limit the Astros to one run over five innings at Yankee Stadium.
The always reliable Verlander was knocked around by the Tampa Bay Rays on three days rest and lasted only 3.2 innings after allowing four runs. The veteran righty allowed just one hit in seven scoreless innings against the Rays in Game 1 of the ALDS and is 6-3 with a 2.95 ERA in nine career starts in the ALCS. He dominated the Yankees back in the 2017 ALCS to the tune of one run in 16 total innings.
The Yankees finally winning a game in Houston when it matters was huge. They carried the momentum from the Twins series right into Minute Maid Park. Life will be a little tougher against Verlander, but I definitely think this teams deserves a shot as a big underdog here.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Sunday. He finished 135-95 +2686 units in the regular season!
Pick: Yankees +145
BETTING TRENDS:
Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 playoff games.
Yankees are 37-14 in their last 51 games on grass.
Yankees are 40-17 in their last 57 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 Sunday games.
Yankees are 25-11 in their last 36 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Yankees are 20-9 in their last 29 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Yankees are 11-5 in their last 16 vs. American League West.
Yankees are 35-16 in their last 51 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Yankees are 46-22 in their last 68 vs. a team with a winning record.
Yankees are 66-32 in their last 98 overall.
Yankees are 41-20 in their last 61 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 59-29 in their last 88 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Yankees are 5-12 in their last 17 League Championship games.
Yankees are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Yankees are 4-10 in their last 14 playoff road games.
Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 7 of a series.
Yankees are 1-8 in their last 9 League Championship road games.
Yankees are 4-0 in Paxton’s last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Yankees are 6-0 in Paxton’s last 6 road starts.
Yankees are 4-0 in Paxton’s last 4 starts vs. American League West.
Yankees are 5-0 in Paxton’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Yankees are 5-0 in Paxton’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 5-1 in Paxton’s last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Yankees are 13-3 in Paxton’s last 16 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 20-6 in Paxton’s last 26 starts on grass.
Yankees are 20-7 in Paxton’s last 27 starts.
Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 21-5 in their last 26 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Astros are 21-5 in their last 26 Sunday games.
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss.
Astros are 39-12 in their last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Astros are 40-13 in their last 53 home games.
Astros are 49-18 in their last 67 games on grass.
Astros are 13-5 in their last 18 playoff home games.
Astros are 51-21 in their last 72 overall.
Astros are 18-8 in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Astros are 3-7 in their last 10 playoff games.
Astros are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Astros are 0-4 in their last 4 League Championship home games.
Astros are 0-5 in their last 5 League Championship games.
Astros are 5-1 in Verlander’s last 6 home starts.
Astros are 5-1 in Verlander’s last 6 Sunday starts.
Astros are 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 7-2 in Verlander’s last 9 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 11-4 in Verlander’s last 15 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 8-3 in Verlander’s last 11 starts with 4 days of rest.
Astros are 7-3 in Verlander’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 14-6 in Verlander’s last 20 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 55-24 in Verlander’s last 79 starts on grass.
Astros are 36-16 in Verlander’s last 52 starts.
Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 5-1-1 in Yankees last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 League Championship road games.
Under is 12-3 in Yankees last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 playoff road games.
Under is 15-4-2 in Yankees last 21 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 13-5-1 in Yankees last 19 vs. American League West.
Under is 5-2-1 in Yankees last 8 road games.
Over is 20-8-1 in Yankees last 29 Sunday games.
Under is 15-7-1 in Yankees last 23 games following a win.
Under is 17-8-2 in Yankees last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 5-0-1 in Paxton’s last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Paxton’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Paxton’s last 7 road starts.
Over is 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts vs. American League West.
Over is 18-7-1 in Paxton’s last 26 starts on grass.
Over is 18-7-1 in Paxton’s last 26 starts overall.
Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 Sunday games.
Under is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 games following a loss.
Over is 12-3-1 in Astros last 16 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 3-1-1 in Astros last 5 playoff home games.
Under is 3-1-1 in Astros last 5 overall.
Under is 3-1-1 in Astros last 5 playoff games.
Under is 3-1-1 in Astros last 5 vs. American League East.
Over is 14-5-1 in Astros last 20 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 8-3 in Astros last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 5-2 in Astros last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Verlander’s last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Under is 26-8-1 in Verlander’s last 35 starts with 4 days of rest.
Under is 6-2 in Verlander’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 8-3 in Verlander’s last 11 Sunday starts.
Over is 8-3-1 in Verlander’s last 12 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 13-5-1 in Verlander’s last 19 home starts.
Under is 5-2 in Verlander’s last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 in Verlander’s last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 11-5 in Verlander’s last 16 starts overall.
Astros are 5-1 in Verlander’s last 6 starts vs. Yankees.
Yankees are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Under is 19-9 in the last 28 meetings in Houston.
Yankees are 4-10 in the last 14 meetings in Houston.
