September brings a surge of NFL optimism as fans eagerly anticipate the new season, with many feeling confident about their team’s prospects. However, this early enthusiasm doesn’t always hold up when the games begin.
That widespread confidence often spills into the betting markets, especially in win totals, where expectations on paper suggest a season full of promise for many teams.
However, what happens when the hype doesn’t align with on-field performance? That’s when win total unders typically pay off, revealing hidden value for savvy bettors in 2025.
This guide shines a light on three teams whose projected outcomes clash with public enthusiasm, supported by solid data, expert analysis, and current odds.
Why Betting Unders Can Be Smart in Win Total Markets
Before digging into specific teams, it is worth understanding why unders may hold more value in the NFL win totals market. It comes down to one thing: multiple paths to failure.
A team can miss its win total for many reasons:
- Injuries to key players,
- Poor quarterback play,
- Tough scheduling spots,
- Missed coaching expectations,
- Regression in turnover luck.
Compare that to the narrow path of hitting or surpassing a win total. Everything must go mostly right. That imbalance is why unders tend to be more profitable for long-term bettors, especially when betting early in the preseason.
Steelers: Betting Against the Tomlin Trend
- Current Line: Under 8.5 Wins,
- Odds: -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook,
- Model Projection: 7.18 Wins.
Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season. That stat alone keeps Pittsburgh Steelers fans, and many bettors, confident year after year. However, every streak ends eventually, and in 2025, the roster faces more questions than answers.
Much of the optimism rests on Aaron Rodgers bouncing back. Yet in 2024, he ranked 24th in Passing NEP per drop back, just ahead of Mac Jones. That’s not a strong case for elite production, especially at age 42. While the Steelers’ offensive line has some upside, it remains unproven.
The defence is reliable, but not elite enough to carry an inconsistent offence. Even a reasonable jump from Rodgers will likely not close the gap to nine wins. The numbers support the under.
This perspective reflects broader NFL betting predictions trends; smart bettors are targeting teams with inflated expectations and roster holes.
Bears: A Tough Road for a Talented Rookie
- Current Line: Under 7.5 Wins,
- Odds: +110 at FanDuel Sportsbook,
- Model Projection: Below 7 Wins.
Caleb Williams is one of the most exciting quarterback prospects in recent memory. That alone pushes optimism for the Chicago Bears higher than it probably should be.
The challenge? The Bears face the second-toughest schedule in the league. According to win-adjusted metrics, a neutral schedule would project them for 0.75 more wins. That means even if the team performs to expectation, the schedule works against them.
Yes, there are winnable home games, Giants, Saints, Browns, but the road matchups are brutal. Even with strong play from Williams and support from offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, this is a big ask.
The line movement in 2025 NFL odds reflects how public sentiment shifts during preseason hype. In May, the over 8.5 moved to +135, then dropped to +125 after positive camp reports. The fundamentals haven’t changed. The under remains a smart target for those looking past the headlines.
Patriots: Solid Intentions, Thin Results
- Current Line: Under 7.5 Wins,
- Odds: +135 at FanDuel Sportsbook,
- Model Projection: Well Below 7 Wins.
New England Patriots fans want to believe. The front office tried to surround Drake Maye with talent, even targeting Chris Godwin in free agency. Instead, they landed Stefon Diggs, a veteran whose efficiency has slipped.
Diggs posted a 2.0 yards per route run (YPRR) and just 8.7 average depth of target (aDOT) in 2024. Those are not top-tier receiver numbers. It’s apparent that the Patriots still lack a vertical threat to unlock Maye’s arm talent.
The good news? Maye played well as a rookie, and head coach Mike Vrabel has a history of squeezing results from underwhelming rosters. However, in the tough AFC East, that may not be enough.
This is a case where NFL betting news and roster moves suggest improvement, but performance metrics do not. It’s a risky over to chase. Unders on teams in transition with unclear offensive identity often make the most sense, especially when the payout is as strong as +135.
Surprises Happen, But Unders Remain Safer Bets
A bettor scanning the NFL win totals board on FanDuel Sportsbook will notice that optimism skews lines. Unders are rarely fun bets, but they often offer stronger value, especially in September.
Betting the over on a team like Chicago or Pittsburgh means needing a lot to go right. But betting the under requires fewer things to go wrong. That’s why injury-prone teams or those with unproven quarterback play tend to attract sharper underwagers.
The value lies in understanding not just the numbers, but also the psychology of betting markets. When fans are hopeful, they bet overs. When bettors are cautious and rely on models, they lean under.
For those tracking NFL betting predictions and modeling weekly win projections, these three teams stand out as strong under candidates.
Letting the Data Lead the Way
The NFL is unpredictable. Every season brings breakout players and surprise playoff runs. But preseason betting is not about believing in miracles; it is about identifying where public emotion outweighs objective data.
Each of the teams above enters 2025 with potential. But potential does not win games. Rosters need cohesion, health, depth, and luck. Those are tough variables to project in September.
If you are following NFL betting insights to inform your preseason strategy, remember this: the market tends to overvalue hope and undervalue risk. That’s why unders, especially those backed by clear analytical signals, often make more sense.
*Content reflects information available as of 2025/09/02; subject to change.
