Washington State (5-0, 2-0) at Oregon (4-1, 1-1)
When: Saturday, October 7th 2017
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Pickem/67
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The Washington State Cougars will take to the road for the first time this season when they visit the injury-riddled Oregon Ducks in a Pac-12 battle on Saturday night at raucous Autzen Stadium. The Cougars are off to a perfect 5-0 start, but have played all of their games in Pullman including a 30-27 upset of USC last Friday night. The Ducks are averaging 49.6 points per game but could be hard-pressed to keep pace with the Cougars’ Air Raid offense without quarterback Justin Herbert, who will miss the next several weeks due to a fractured collarbone. With Herbert out, the Ducks will turn to either senior Taylor Alie or true freshman Braxton Burmeister against Washington State. The Cougars bring in an underrated defense that ranks 11th nationally and second in the Pac-12 in total defense (275 yards allowed per game). The Ducks bounced back from a loss to Arizona State with last Saturday’s 45-24 win over California but are dealing with injuries to key players such as Herbert and linebacker Kaulana Apelu, who fractured his ankle against the Bears and has been ruled out for the season. The Ducks are looking to snap a two-game skid against Washington State, but still lead the all-time series 47-40-7.
Senior quarterback Luke Falk connected with nine different receivers and became the all-time Pac-12 leader in completions in the win over USC, finishing with 340 passing yards, two touchdowns and one interception. A solid trio of running backs – Jamal Morrow, Gerard Wicks and James Williams – have take some pressure off Falk this season. Falk ranks fifth in the country with 1,718 passing yards and has just two interceptions. Linebacker Jahad Woods was named Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Week after making a game-high nine tackles against USC and helping the Cougars hold the Trojans to a season-low 327 yards of total offense. Washington State is 17-3 when forcing multiple turnovers under defensive coordinator Alex Grinch.
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Oregon suffered another key injury last week as Royce Freeman, who has rushed for 592 yards and 10 touchdowns, exited the win over Cal with an arm injury but practiced Wednesday and is expected to play against the Cougars. Fellow running backs Kani Benoit and Tony Brooks-James picked-up the slack, combining for 214 yards and three TDs against the Bears. The Ducks will probably lean heavy on the ground game this week with Herbert out. Henry Mondeaux recorded two sacks last week to lead the defense, which allowed just eight yards rushing and totaled seven sacks against the Bears. Oregon is 14th in the nation in rushing yards allowed (95.0). The Ducks begin a brutal stretch with three of their next five games against ranked opponents – and that doesn’t include trips to Stanford and UCLA.
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After last week’s win over USC, I was fully preparing to go against Washington State in a tough enviornment, but the injuries to Oregon’s team are huge. I think the Cougars can handle the pressure and outscore the Ducks Saturday night.
Pick: Washington State -2.5
TRENDS:
- Cougars are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win.
- Cougars are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Cougars are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cougars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Cougars are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 conference games.
- Cougars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in October.
- Cougars are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cougars are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Ducks are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games in October.
- Ducks are 17-8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Ducks are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Ducks are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games.
- Ducks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Ducks are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games on fieldturf.
- Ducks are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
- Ducks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 conference games.
- Ducks are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Ducks are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Ducks are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.
- Ducks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Ducks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Ducks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 4-0 in Cougars last 4 road games.
- Over is 5-1 in Cougars last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-1 in Cougars last 5 games in October.
- Under is 4-1 in Cougars last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 8-3-1 in Cougars last 12 conference games.
- Over is 9-4 in Cougars last 13 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 5-0 in Ducks last 5 games in October.
- Over is 6-0 in Ducks last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 6-1 in Ducks last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-1 in Ducks last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 9-2 in Ducks last 11 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 43-10-2 in Ducks last 55 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 21-7 in Ducks last 28 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 9-3 in Ducks last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 49-17-1 in Ducks last 67 home games.
- Under is 5-2 in Ducks last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 10-4 in Ducks last 14 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 10-4 in Ducks last 14 conference games.
- Cougars are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
- Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Oregon.
- Underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
- Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
