Golden State (0-0) at Houston (0-0)
When: Monday, May 14th 2018
Where: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
Time: 9:05 ET | TV: TNT
Opening Odds: Houston -2/225
Its the matchup everyone has been waiting for – the Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets – in the Western Conference Finals. They will lock horns in Game 1 on Monday night at Toyota Center, with the Rockets earning the home court advantage this time around. Houston won the West by seven games over the second-place Warriors and took two of three regular-season meetings while averaging 117.3 points. This will be the second conference finals in four seasons for the Rockets – the last in 2015 resulting in a lopsided series loss at the hands of Golden State. Both teams have needed just five games to get through each of the first two rounds, with Houston eliminating Minnesota and Utah, while the defending NBA champion Warriors cruised past the Spurs and Pelicans and are seeking seeking their fourth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals. The last two regular season meetings were in Houston just 16 days apart and Rockets guard Chris Paul averaged 30.5 points in those two contests. Golden State beat Houston in five games in the 2016 first round – the last postseason matchup between these high-scoring teams.
Golden State has been battling through injuries to one player or another all season, which is the reason they finished second to Houston in the standings. Star guard Stephen Curry came back from a knee injury in Game 2 of the semifinal series against New Orleans, and the two-time MVP averaged 24.5 points while making 44.1% of his 3-pointers during the series. The Warriors could use a better shooting effort from Klay Thompson, who made just 38.4% from the field against New Orleans, including 8-of-34 from 3-point range over the final four games of the series.
Paul could be the key for Houston as he’s the biggest difference in what Golden State faced in the past against the Rockets. The veteran point guard averaged 21.8 points through the first two rounds and is participating in his first conference finals in his 13-year career. The Rockets of course are led by superstar James Harden and has joined Michael Jordan (1988-89 and 1990-91) as the second player in NBA history to average at least 28 points, seven assists, five boards and two steals while playing more than five games in a postseason. Center Clint Capela is one of the more underrated players in the league and is having a solid postseason with averages of 14.5 points and 12.2 rebounds.
The Rockets might have had the better record this season, but Golden State is still the better team. The Warriors appear to be fully healthy and have way too much depth for Houston to handle in this series. Can Houston take a game or two? Maybe, but the Warriors have won 4 of the last 5 games played in Houston and will come out with a victory tonight.
Pick: Warriors +1.5
- Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Conference Finals games.
- Warriors are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
- Warriors are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Warriors are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.
- Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest.
- Warriors are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Warriors are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Warriors are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Rockets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
- Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.
- Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific.
- Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 Conference Finals games.
- Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Warriors last 6 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Under is 21-8-1 in Warriors last 30 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 overall.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Warriors last 8 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
- Under is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 vs. Western Conference.
- Under is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 vs. NBA Southwest.
- Under is 10-1 in Rockets last 11 vs. NBA Pacific.
- Under is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 5-1 in Rockets last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
- Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 Monday games.
- Under is 8-2 in Rockets last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 Conference Finals games.
- Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Under is 29-11 in Rockets last 40 vs. Western Conference.
- Under is 5-2 in Rockets last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 5-2 in Rockets last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Rockets last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Under is 14-6 in Rockets last 20 home games.
- Under is 16-7 in Rockets last 23 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 18-8 in Rockets last 26 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Under is 35-17 in Rockets last 52 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Houston.
- Warriors are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Houston.
- Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
- Warriors are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
- Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
