Golden State (2-0) at Houston (0-2)
When: Saturday, May 4th, 2019
Where: Toyota Center,
Houston, TX
Time: 8:30 ET | TV: ABC
Opening Odds: Houston -3.5/222
All the pressure is now on the Houston Rockets as the Golden State Warriors held serve in the first two games at home in their best-of-seven Western Conference semifinal series. The Rockets will look for some homecourt magic when they get set to host Game 3 Saturday night at Toyota Center, where they are 34-10 SU and 25-17-2 ATS including the postseason. Houston almost covered the spread both games in Oakland, losing the opener 104-100 as 6-point underdogs, but just missing cashing bettors tickets in Game 2 on Tuesday, falling 115-109 at +5.5. Odds for Game 3 have the Rockets favored by 3.5 points, and after Tuesday’s win, Golden State’s title odds improved from -150 to -185, while Houston’s dropped from +650 to +1000. The referees were all the talk after Game 1, but it was the physical play in Game 2 that took center stage. Houston star James Harden was lost for several crucial minutes after he was hit in the face, perhaps inadvertently, by Draymond Green. Harden had trouble with his vision once he returned to the court, but finished the game and should be good to go for Saturday’s contest. Stephen Curry is also expected to play for the Warriors after dislocating a finger on his non-shooting hand. Golden State’s lone win in the four-game, regular-season series came at Houston 106-104 on March 13th.
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Curry’s dislocated middle left finger may have attributed to his 6-of-16 shooting but practiced fully this week. “He’s got it taped up, but it’s probably good that we’ve got a few days off. So hopefully the pain will continue to go down as we get closer to game time,” head coach Steve Kerr told reporters. All-Star Kevin Durant’s streak of five straight postseason games scoring at least 30 points ended, but still had 29 points in Game 2 on 9-of-22 shooting. Power forward Draymond Green is having an all-around solid series thus far and is averaging 15 points, 11.7 rebounds and 8.7 assists over the last three games.
The Rockets committed 31 turnovers in the first two games and couldn’t seem to grab a defensive rebound at times. Houston actually had a 54.6 effective-field-goal percentage over Games 1 and 2, but Golden State is +15 in field-goal attempts largely because of the Rockets’ turnovers and the Warriors’ offensive rebounding rate. Golden State has 26 offensive boards, or 30.2 percent of its misses. Harden averaged 32 points in the first two games while point guard Chris Paul added an average of 17.5. Center Clint Capela (14 points, 10 rebounds) and PF PJ Tucker (13 points, 10 rebounds) each recorded a double-double in Game 2 after combining for four points and nine boards in Game 1.
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I still think the Warriors will win this series, but they won’t sweep it. Houston is too good and could have easily won both of those first two games. Homecourt will prove to be the difference in this one, as well as the Rockets doing a better job of rebounding Golden State’s misses.
Pick: Rockets -3.5
Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Warriors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Warriors are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 Saturday games.
Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest.
Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Rockets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.
Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
Rockets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Rockets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Rockets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Rockets are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
Rockets are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 vs. Western Conference.
Rockets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 7-0 in Warriors last 7 Saturday games.
Under is 9-1 in Warriors last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 9-2 in Warriors last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 Conference Semifinals games.
Under is 10-3 in Warriors last 13 games following a ATS win.
Over is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 overall.
Over is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 vs. Western Conference.
Over is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 in Warriors last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 Saturday games.
Under is 5-0 in Rockets last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 7-0 in Rockets last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 7-1-1 in Rockets last 9 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 5-1 in Rockets last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 9-2 in Rockets last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 8-2-1 in Rockets last 11 home games.
Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.
Under is 17-5 in Rockets last 22 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Under is 19-7-1 in Rockets last 27 overall.
Under is 16-6-1 in Rockets last 23 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 18-7-1 in Rockets last 26 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 18-7-2 in Rockets last 27 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 20-8-1 in Rockets last 29 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 38-17 in Rockets last 55 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
Under is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings in Houston.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
