Golden State (3-0) at Portland (0-3)
When: Monday, May 20th, 2019
Where: Moda Center,
Portland, Oregon
Time: 9:05 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Golden State -3/220
Many thought the Golden State Warriors were in trouble after All-Star forward Kevin Durant went down with an injury in Game 5 of the Western Conference semifinals against the Houston Rockets. Instead, Golden State has reverted back to their old ways – pre-Durant – with guard Steph Curry leading the way, and are now one game away from their fourth consecutive NBA Finals appearance. Bookmakers also weren’t confident in the Warriors, making them 7.5-point underdogs in Game 6 versus Houston and 2.5-point dogs at the Portland Trail Blazers on Saturday. Golden State won both games and bookmakers are now taking notice, installing the Warriors as 3.5-point favorites on the road in Game 4 Monday night at Moda Center. Golden State trailed by as many as 18 points late in the second quarter and went into the half down 66-53 on Saturday before outscoring the Trail Blazers 29-13 in the third en route to a 110-99 triumph. Portland, which squandered a 15-point halftime advantage in Game 2, totaled 33 points in the second half of Game 3 and now have to win the next four. The Warriors are now 30-1 when Durant is out of the lineup and Curry is playing.
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Golden State power forward Draymond Green continues to be a dominant force that not many people are talking about, and scored a postseason-high 20 points to go with 13 rebounds and 12 assists on Saturday in his third triple-double of the playoffs. Green helped key the third-quarter rally while Curry poured in a game-high 36 points to reach 30 for the fourth time in as many games since Durant (calf) went down. Center Damion Jones made his first start of the postseason on Saturday and went scoreless while committing three fouls in three minutes. Forward Andre Iguodala (lower leg) left Saturday’s game and is scheduled for an MRI exam on Sunday.
Portland lives and dies with guards Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum and neither has shown signs of carrying the Blazers past a conference finals appearance. Lillard struggled to 19 points on 5-of-18 shooting in Game 3, while McCollum is just 6-of-22 from 3-point range in the series. Lillard is shooting 32.6 percent from the floor in the series and committed 14 turnovers in the first three games. Meyers Leonard finished with 16 points and Evan Turner 12 for Portland, which has now lost 11 of 12 playoff games to the Warriors over the last four seasons.
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Oddsmakers really flipped the script with this line here. Not only is Golden State not an underdog on the road anymore, they’re 3.5-point favorites. This makes it a little tougher to take them, but this Portland team just can’t matchup with the Warriors. The Blazers could throw in the towel if this game gets out of hand early. I’ll lay the points.
Pick: Warriors -3.5
Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Finals games.
Warriors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Northwest.
Warriors are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 Monday games.
Warriors are 19-42-2 ATS in their last 63 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Trail Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Trail Blazers are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss.
Trail Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Under is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 Conference Finals games.
Over is 3-1-1 in Warriors last 5 road games.
Under is 12-4-1 in Warriors last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 3-1-1 in Warriors last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 6-2 in Warriors last 8 vs. NBA Northwest.
Over is 3-1-1 in Warriors last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 6-2-1 in Warriors last 9 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 19-7 in Warriors last 26 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Under is 16-7-1 in Warriors last 24 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 11-5 in Warriors last 16 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 4-1 in Trail Blazers last 5 Monday games.
Over is 19-6-1 in Trail Blazers last 26 home games.
Over is 22-8 in Trail Blazers last 30 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Over is 21-8 in Trail Blazers last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 26-10-2 in Trail Blazers last 38 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 12-5 in Trail Blazers last 17 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 20-9 in Trail Blazers last 29 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Over is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Portland.
Over is 20-9 in the last 29 meetings.
