Virginia (9-4) vs Florida (10-2)
When: Monday, December 30th 2019
Where: Hard Rock Stadium,
Miami Gardens, FL
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Florida -13.5/53.5
The Virginia Cavaliers might have been manhandled in the ACC Championship Game by Clemson, but they still finished with nine wins and an invite to the Orange Bowl to take on the Florida Gators this Monday night. Head coach Bronco Mendenhall has engineered one of the best seasons in over two decades in Charlottesville, and has a chance to get the Cavaliers to 10 wins for the first time since 1989. Virginia is also seeking it’s first major bowl win since 1995, while the Gators are eyeing their second consecutive New Year’s Six Bowl victory after taking care of Michigan in last year’s Peach Bowl. Virginia will a big game from dual-threat quarterback Bryce Perkins, who broke the single-season school record for total offense that he set last year with an ACC-best 3,960 yards – seventh-best in the country. Florida will come into this contest as two-touchdown favorites mainly because they have one of the best defenses in the country that produced three shutouts this season. The Gators have won their previous three trips to the Orange Bowl including the 2008 BCS National Championship.
Virginia became the seventh team in last seven years to win the ACC Coastal Division by beating rival Virginia Tech on the last day of the regular season, but couldn’t compete with the Tigers in the conference title game – as expected. The 62-17 loss was their worst of the season, but Perkins managed to throw for 266 yards – the most allowed by the Tigers in 2019. Perkins ended the season with 35 touchdowns (18 passing) and 3,215 through the air. Wide receiver Joe Reed sat out that game with an undisclosed injury, but will play versus the Gators. The senior had team-high marks of 70 receptions and six TD catches and is also the program’s all-time leader in kick return yardage (3,010) and kick return scores (four). The Clemson game aside, Virginia boasts a pretty solid defense that ranks 40th overall (359.8) and 32nd versus the run (131.6).
The Gators have one of the best defenses in the country, ranking eighth in scoring defense (14.4 points) and 10th in total defense (299.0). All-SEC linebacker Jonathan Greenard led the conference with 8.5 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss. Junior cornerback CJ Henderson also earned All-SEC first team honors after finishing fourth in the conference with 11 pass breakups, but opted to declare for the NFL Draft earlier this month and will not play. Junior quarterback Kyle Trask ended the season with 24 touchdowns to six interceptions and completed 67.6 percent of his passes. His top target is Kyle Pitts, who became the first Florida player to catch 50 passes (51) while finishing the regular season with a team-high 610 yards and five touchdowns. Florida does not have much of a rushing game, ranking 119th out of 130 FBS schools at 120.5 yards a contest.
It’s really going to be hard for this Virginia team to score enough points to keep up with Florida. It’s not going to be a 62-17 game like the ACC Championship, but Florida should win this game by 20 points.
Pick: Florida -14.5 (Jay Cooper’s Free Bowl Picks)
Betting Trends:
Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.
Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games as a favorite.
Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
Gators are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Gators are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 bowl games.
Gators are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Bowl games.
Gators are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Cavaliers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
Over is 5-0 in Cavaliers last 5 games overall.
Over is 5-0 in Cavaliers last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Under is 5-0 in Gators last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games in December.
Over is 8-1 in Cavaliers last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Cavaliers last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Cavaliers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-1 in Cavaliers last 7 neutral site games.
Under is 5-1-1 in Cavaliers last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 bowl games.
Over is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 Bowl games.
Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 4-1 in Gators last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Over is 4-1 in Gators last 5 games on grass.
Over is 9-3 in Cavaliers last 12 non-conference games.
Under is 18-6 in Gators last 24 vs. ACC.
Over is 8-3-1 in Gators last 12 games following a ATS win.
Over is 23-9-1 in Cavaliers last 33 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-2 in Gators last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Gators last 7 games following a straight up win.
Over is 9-4 in Gators last 13 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 29-14 in Cavaliers last 43 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
